Boxing Day Betting - 26 Dec 2014

Two bets for today:

Brentford - Ipswich Town, Brentford -0.25 at 2.06 (Sbobet)

Leeds United - Wigan Athletic, Leeds 0.0 at 2.09 (BetVictor)

Happy holidays, lads!

Premier League betting - 7 Dec 2014

Aston Villa - Leicester, A.Villa -0.25 at 2.18 (Matchbook)

After a great start of the campaign and 10 points in the four opening rounds, Villa lost six in a row and most of the time looked pretty hopeless. Now, they’re in uptrend again, no defeat in four, Benteke is back and he scored for midweek win at Palace. This kind of games is their way of living. Leicester have collected only two points out of last nine games, five straight defeats on the road and no goal in four of those. Before QPR previous weekend, they had only 12 shots on target in 6 away games. Nigel Pearson had some arguing with the fans, which doesn’t help. It’s like 1-0 Villa for me, but taking some insurance in case of a draw.

Championship betting - 6 Dec 2014

Cardiff - Rotherham Utd, Cardiff -0.75 at 2.07 (Sbobet)

Cardiff are having five home wins in a row, seven out of nine this season. Rotherham are going in the opposite direction, no win in last five games in the league, scored only one goal in those. Only win on the road this season came against Millwall, back in August.

Ipswich - Leeds, Ipswich -0.75 at 2.04 (Sbobet)

Ipswich have four wins out of last five in the league and lost only one of last 15. At home they have five wins out of last seven and only one defeat out of last 14. Leeds are different kind of animal at Elland Road. In previous round they run over the leaders Derby, but on the road only one win out of 10 with four defeats in last five.

Premier League betting - 6 Dec 2014

QPR - Burnley, Over 2.5 at 2.10 (Tipico)

Last five games that QPR played at home ended with 3 or more goals, while they scored 2 goals in each (two of those five were against L’pool and Man City). I read somewhere they had 33 goal attempts against Leicester. They’ve been doing well in their mini-league, collecting 10 points from home games against Sunderland, Stoke, Aston Villa and Leicester.

Burnley on the other hand, are undefeated in last four, practicing some combat spirit, but seriously lacking in quality. Their last four on the road ended with 3 or more goals, while they scored in 7 out of last 8 away.

And odds. Odds are very acceptable.

Premier League betting II - 9 Nov 2014

West Brom - Newcastle, Over 2.25 at 1.98 (Pinnacle)
West Brom have been averaging 3.6 goals in five games at home this season, while their six out of last seven competitive games (home and away) ended with three or more goals. Newcastle have improved significantly, with the wins over Liverpool and Spurs in last two rounds - they are able to score here. At the same time, defence doesn't look solid (to me, at least) despite only one conceded goal in last four. I see goals on both sides, but taking some caution - in case of two goals, half stake is back.

Premier League betting - 9 Nov 2014

Sunderland - Everton, Everton -0.5 at 2.10 (bet365)

Sunderland have only one win out of last seven in league (3 defeats). Against Everton it’s worse, one home win out of last 10 (W1-D3-L6) and two wins (both, home and away) out of last 22 (W2-D5-L15)! Everton have lost just two of their last 10 EPL matches away (W6-D2-L2).
Even if it might not be looking so at the first glance, I think this is a good price actually.

Championship betting - 4 Nov 2014

As mentioned in chat, I have two bets for tonight.

Blackburn 0.0 at Millwall @ 2.05 (Sbobet) and Watford -0.25 at Birmingham @ 1.98 (bet365). 

Millwall have won only one out of last 10 at home, while Blackburn are having three league wins in a row and being undefeated i five. They’re unbeaten in last five visits to The Den. 

Birmingham... They ashamed themselves against Bournemouth, have four straight defeats at home and also four straight defeats against Watford. Visitors are undefeated in last nine in league (4W-5D).

EPL and Championship - 1 Nov 2014

Everton - Swansea, over 2.75 2.13 (Pinnacle)

Everton have been scoring and conceding plenty. Their four home games this season produced 21 goals, there were five more goals in Europa League game vs Wolfsburg. They’re the most accurate shooters hitting the target with 54% efforts and have scored four goals from outside the box (best league record, alongside West Ham).

Looking at the record in all competitions, Swans have scored in 11 out of last 13 games on the road and all 11 produced at least three goals.

Cardiff - Leeds, Cardiff -0.75 at 1.99 (Pinnacle)

Cardiff have three home wins in a row, five out of seven in total - two defeats came vs ‘Boro and Norwich. In my opinion, they will finish in top six. They have won eight out of last ten meetings against Leeds (both home and away). 

What to say about Leeds... Celino is running the show, Hockaday was appointed and sacked, Milanic faced the axe after very short period, Neil Redfern is appointed once again, Milanic saying he’s just on vacation, Celino negotiates to sell the club to Red Bull... Complete mess. Meanwhile, team has been underperforming, six games without a win, away only one win in seven games.

League Two betting - 25 Oct 2014

Luton - Northampton, Luton -0.5 at 2.15 (Marathonbet)

It’s a local derby and usually I don’t go to the pits to pick up a bet, but really fancy this one. Luton are in the run of six straight wins in a league and have won the last four encounters against Northampton. Visitors are going in the opposite direction, having three defeats in a row (conceded eight goals in those), have managed only one win at Luton of last 23 visits and they’ve been facing injury crisis. 

Good luck lads, thanks for visiting!

League One betting - 25 Oct 2014

Barnsley - Bristol City, over 2.75 at 1.92 (Pinnacle)

Barnsley’s home games have an average of 4.33 goals per a game (six played, total of 26 goals), last five produced three or more and four of those five were with four or more. Only Crewe conceded more goals at home, than the Tykes.

City’s eight of last nine games produced three or more goals. They have scored two or more in 10 of their last 11 matches and in eight of their last nine encounters with Barnsley. On the other hand, they have kept just two clean sheets in their last 31 league games away from home.

More to come...

Championship betting 1 Oct 2014

Wolverhampton - Huddersfield, over 2.5 at 1.92 (Matchbook)

Wolves have the perfect score at home this season (W4-D0-L0), including previous season it’s eight consecutive wins and 13 out of last 14. With another win tonight, they’ll top the table.

On the other hand, Hudders  coming to Molineux in the bettermood, after defeating Millwall in previous round. They’re undefeated in last seven trips to Wolves (won last three) and are undefeated in last 10 (W8-D2-L0)! On top of that, striker Grant Holt is expected to start.

Frankly, I don’t have guts to oppose Wolves here, but think it should be an interesting game. Goals. Odds have dropped a bit, since chat box tip.

I had expected to see evens for Fulham tonight, at 1.90 it just doesn’t worth in my opinion.

Good luck, lads!

EDIT: Forgot to mention. Hudders' last eight away games have gone in overs, with total of 34 goals scored (4.25 in average)!

Championship betting - 27 Sep 2014

Ipswich - Rotherham, Ipswich at 2.02 (Matchbook)

Very good price, here. Ipswich have won three out of four this season at home (only defeat was vs. Norwich) and have three straight wins in the league (last one at Wigan). Rotherham are 19^th, they’re winless in last four in league and have scored only six goals in 10 competitive games this season.

Denmark - Armenia, over 2.5 at 1.97 (Sbobet)
Really good odds for goals. Denmark have 6/7 over 2.5 at home and Armenia have 5/7 over 2.5 away. Armenia changed the style recently with arrival of new coach, playing in more attacking formation - which normally causes troubles in the back line. Meanwhile, they scored 10 goals in those five (two in Italy). I expect something like 3-1 Denmark.

EC Qualifiers - Sunday 7 Sep 2014

Georgia - Ireland, Ireland -0.25 at 2.05 (BetVictor)

Georgia hold France on a draw recently, lost in the dying seconds vs. Spain and will have 25k on the stands. On the other hand, in previous campaign they were in the group with Malta, Latvia, Israel, Croatia and Greece and noticed seven defeats out of ten. They have failed to score in five out of last seven internationals.

Ireland have won all five of their previous matches against Georgia (scored at least two in each) and started last three qualifiers with a win.

League Two betting - 6 Sep 2014

Southend United - Oxford United, Southend -0.75

Some decent value, comparing with my numbers. Southend have kept six clean sheets in last eight in league, while Oxford are winless in last nine league games (lost eight, drew one), have won only once in their last 14 away and against Southend lost seven and won one of their last eight in league.

Stevenage - York City, York 0.0 at 2.06 (MarathonBet)

York are unbeaten in last 10 away (6 wins), Stevenage with no clean sheet in last 11 in league.

Saturday betting - 23 Aug 2014

Chelsea - Leicester, Over 3.0 at 1.93 (Various)
Initial idea was to make a case for both teams to score, with Leicester scoring in each of last 34 fixtures (including Stoke, Man City and Fulham in Cup) and with Nigel Pearson having in mind “nothing to lose” rather than “let’s park the bus” attitude. But again, it is Mourinho and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. And with addition of Costa and Fabregas, they looked mighty in the first half, against the side of approximately same quality as Leicester - I guess it could easily end with 5-0 score line. So I will appreciate Leicester scoring, but taking goal line instead.

Millwall - Rotheram, Millwall -0.5 at 2.11 (BetVictor) 
Millwall are definitely in-form side and being in-form is usually a key for betting in Championship. They had good finish of previous season and started this one really well. Apart of that, I personally really admire Ian Holloway and wouldn’t be too surprised if they end somewhere around the play-off line. Don't have to say too much about Rotheram, they have two defeats so far and one very fortunate win against Wolves.

Derby - Fulham, over 2.5 at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)
Neither of these sides hasn’t scored too much this season, but there were plenty of shots on/off the target and both have good attacking potential. Derby are favourites (probably not 1.65 favourites), while Magath could lose his nerves a bit and after nightmare start to go more attacking that he should. Gut feeling says this could be a goal fest.