Championship betting, Nott Forest - Cardiff

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Instead to be contenders for play-off, Forest are under a serious relegation threat (first under the line, at the moment). They have five defeats out of last six (one draw) and haven’t score a single goal in those. (Now when I’ve noticed, they’ll probably smash one in the opening 10 minutes!) At home, three defeats in a row and every of them looks a bit embarrassing. First trashing from Leeds 0-4, then 0-1 defeats vs. Palace and Posh.

Cardiff have only one defeat of last 13 competitive games, unlucky one at home vs. ‘Boro. They’ve noticed only two away defeats of season’s 12 and are undefeated in last six, but have played too many draws lately (7 of 12 away). Oppositely from the hosts, they are serious promotion contenders (as every year though).

My impression is such high odds on visitors are based more on Forest’s reputation then on recent results and potential. I am covering a draw, but expect Cardiff to nick one for 0-1.

Bet: Cardiff 0.0
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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League Two betting, Northampton - Burton

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The Cobblers have only one win out of ten at home (vs. bottom side - Dag&Red) and have lost eight of last ten (home and away).They have the worst defence in the league.

In the last two rounds, Burton lost away against leaders Crawley and missed to win against Dag&Red. But, before those two they had five wins out of six matches (both home and away), they’re still at fifth place and are a serious play-off contenders.

Northampton have new manager and goalie (his first signing) which force me to take some limitation, but they'll remain a very poor side. 

Bet: Burton -0.25
Odd: 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Boxing Day Betting, Bolton - Newcastle

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The Trotters have lost nine of last ten matches at home, but in previous round they got a big confidence boost by winning Blackburn away and they’ve won seven of their last eight home matches at Boxing Day. However, they cannot shut the defence and they’ve conceded at least twice in eight out of last ten games.

The Toon are winless in last six and this should be a nice chance for them to back on the track. But, they also have a leaky defence and conceded 10 goals in last four encounters. Nine of their last twelve games have produced three goals or more goals (six games with four or more).

I am taking goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.11 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Scotland betting, Hearts - Motherwell

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Odds don’t seem to be fair for me.

Hearts have two wins out of last eight and both came against sides from bottom three (five defeats in those eight).

Motherwell are in a terrific run with seven wins out of nine on the road (five in a row). Acceptable defeat against Celtic and draw vs. Kilmanrock.

Also, Hearts haven’t won against Motherwell in last four at home (won just once in last seven home and away).

Bet: Motherwell +0.25
Odd: 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10
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Calcio betting, Atalanta - Cesena

Sorry for late posting, will be brief.

Atalanta seem to be fine at home with no defeat so far (seven games). Their five draws in a row cause some concern, but without six points deduction they would have been as same position as Inter.

Cesena are generally poor travellers and beside five defeats out of seven, they’ve scored only two goals.

Bet: Atalanta -0.5
Odd: 1.88 (bet365)
Stake: 6/10
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League Two Betting, Shrewsbury - Macclesfield

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I am going to back Shrewsbury to respond on an awful display and defeat away to Aldershot. They have strong home record with seven wins and two draws out of nine at home, conceded only five in those. Macclesfield have noticed six defeats of nine on the road, their goalie saved them against Gillingham and they had a midweek Cup game. 

Don’t like to back such short favorites in this league, but I am in opinion that odd on Shrewsbury should be even lower.

Bet: Shrewsbury -1
Odd: 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Apology to the subscribers for a late delivery, sorry guys.

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League One betting, Bury - Brentford

Fancy the price for away side, since I’d expected something a bit closer to evens for their win. Both sides are in the decent shapes. Bury have three wins out of last four in league (bottom-half clubs and Preston, but in last round they suffered a heavy defeat at Colchester.

Brentford have won last two matches and their only defeat of last five in league came from the hands of Charlton. The Bees continue to play without skipper, midfielder Kevin O'Connor and it’s their only absentee. They have only one away defeat out of nine played games (Sheff Utd, back in August).

Expect Brentford to this one, but covering a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Brentford 0.0
Odd: 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, West Ham - Barnsley

                             

The Hammers have noticed two defeats in a row and will certainly want to bounce back immediately. I am not sure how it’s going to work since there’s a big injury crisis (Allardyce has made a list 25 (twenty five) players to look at in a bid!). Good thing for my bet is all strikers seem to be fit.

The Tykes’ last ten games produced a total amount of 41 goals, last four on the road - 20! Before last week defeat vs. Ipswich, they had a run of four consecutive wins.

I am going for goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.07 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Blue Square North Betting, Boston United - Corby Town

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Boston have only one league win out of last five matches (played against some top sides though). They won at Saturday in Cup which could bring some confidence, but tired legs as well and I doubt they have that big squad for a decent rotation (Corby were free for the weekend). United will be without skipper, defender Gareth Jelleyman.

Corby are also in some downtrend with two defeats and a draw out of last three (all against top nine), but they’ve suffered just a single away defeat out of nine (four wins and draws).

BlueSq as a league sponsor has the lowest odd for United so no reason to go crazy with the stake, but still see a decent value.

Bet: Corby 0.0
Odd: 2.08 (bet365)
Stake: 6/10
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Holland betting, Vitesse - Groningen

Vitesse have won four out of six home games, while two draws and a defeat came against top-six league sides. Only home defeat suffered against Feyenord two weeks ago, but backed on the track with 0-0 draw at Twente and 4-0 home win against RKC Waalwijk.

Groningen’s away record looks opposite, haven’t lost three times in a total of seven games and positive results came only against bottom six (which Vitesse are not). The rest they lost, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per a game.

Think the price is very generous and go for a home win.

Bet: Vitesse
Odd: 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 5/10
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League Two betting, Northampton - Crewe

Northampton won only one game out of home nine. They’ve lost seven of last eight in league and conceded 15 goals in last three matches!

Crewe look a bit better with five wins (and five defeats) of ten games on the road. They also won last two (Hereford and Morecamb).

Think there’s a decent value on away side. Crewe have only one draw of 18 league games (none on the road), there’s not too much point on covering a draw and I am taking straight away win.

Bet: Crewe
Odd: 3.00 (bet365)
Stake: 4/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Newcastle

Norwich haven’t kept a single clean sheet of 14 games, they have conceded more goals than any other team outside the bottom three and only Bolton have allowed their opponents more shots on goal. Their seven home games have produced 22 goals (average 3.14)!

The Toon are also free scoring (and free conceding) side. Seven of their last nine matches in Premier produced three or more goals and they’ve conceded seven goals in last three. For this particular game, Alan Pardew will have plenty of problems with his defence line. Steven Taylor and Mike Williamson are out and Fabricio Coloccini is a serious doubt.

While I fancy Norwich for this one, the fact is both sides have leaky defences and pretty strong attacks. Goals should be only logic conclusion.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 (Interwetten)
Stake: 8/10
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League One Betting, 10 December

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Walsall - Charlton

Walsall are fourth from the bottom , have two home wins out of ten and one win out of last 14 in league. Last week played only a draw against poor Dag&Red. They’ll miss Ryan Jarvis, striker who starts his three-match suspension.

Charlton look superior in the third tier. They’re alone on the top (7 points margin), eight wins in a row (six in league, two in Cup) and are scoring for fun (while defence looks rock solid). The fact they play on the road doesn’t mean too much as they’ve noticed eight wins out of ten.

Against Hudders Charlton showed a great domination and quality. Walsall were clueless in last few games and I doubt they can make some serious threats. Expect nice and smooth 0-2.

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 2.04 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Tranmere - MK Dons

After an impressive start, Tranmere have been slipping on the table and going where, in my opinion, they actually belong - to the bottom half of the table. Five defeats out of last six games and conceded 14 goals in those. The biggest concern is striker, target man Enoch Showunmi. He wasn’t fit at Thursday and seems in best case he’ll be on the bench.

The Dons are doing well, they’re fourth on the table, have six wins in a row (four in league, two in Cup) and scored 23 in those!

I am backing the winning horse here and odds look very appealing.

Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square Bet Premier, Darlington - Forest Green

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Darlo are decent side, had three wins in a row than lost in Wrexham (which is not the shame). On the other hand they have some injury worries with the lack of options in attack (best striker is out injured, other is suspended). Also, few youngsters are expected to appear.
Visitors have only one defeat out of eleven on the road, they’ve noticed three wins out of last four (one draw) and in last two away games smashed Braintree and Southport - scoring eight in those two.

It’s a pity I missed the better price yesterday, but it still represents a good value.

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Bet: Forest Green 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Betsson)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League and Championship betting, 03.12

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Aston Villa - Man Utd

Villa have very good home record (3W, 2D, 1L), but they actually haven’t faced any of the top sides so far. Their wins came against bottom two Blackburn - Wigan and Norwich, drew vs. Wolves and the Toon and lost against West Brom. They’ve noticed only one point of last five matches and have terrible record against Utd, as they won only once of their last 31 league meetings (21W, 9D, 1L).

Man Utd had a poor week, but think I can find few excuses. Against Valencia, back four was mixed which resulted with two goals in the back of the net. Toon were saving their heads and somehow took a point, while elimination from Cup with youngsters was only a slap that needs a reaction and could only be helpful for this bet. Villa Park is happy place to go for Ferguson, as they won more points in Premier only at Goodison.

Expect much improved performance from United and easier win than expected.

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Bet: Man Utd -0.75
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Bristol City - Middlesbrough

The Robins are at poor 20th position, but since Derek McInnes took the charge they have been playing like born again. Undefeated in six in league (4W, 2D) with few really impressive displays. They resisted at West Ham, won at the Den against Millwall and defeated league leaders S’ton in a game where the Saints were on back foot for entire game. They regained self confidence and with the potential they obviously posses, I expect more good games and climbing on the table.

‘Boro made a good start of the season, but their form recently has been going in the opposite direction than the Robins’. They’re winless in last three matches and in last five on the road, defeated only poor old Donny.

I expect City to win this one and to continue a great run, but simply (regardless how much I’ve been trying) cannot exclude a possibility of a draw.

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Bet: B.City 0.0
Odd: 1.98 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10
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