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Crystal Palace - Portsmouth
Palace are flying really high (they remind me on Newcastle in Premier) and are at shocking 3rd place. They’re also undefeated in six league matches (four wins, two draws) and haven’t conceded in last four.
Pompey have a miserable record on the road with just two points of seven away games (including previous season, eleven games without a win) and have noticed five defeats in a row. They got smashed vs. Derby at Saturday, conceding three goals for a half of hour and despite Sean O'Driscoll is already seen as a new manager, I don’t expect any positive impact on the squad (yet).
It’s a very good price on Palace (everything above evens is a very good price, in my opinion), but some covering of a draw should be reasonable.
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Watford - Brighton
The Hornets defeated Peterborough at Sunday and ended a run of four straight defeats (all four against top-half sides though). However it was fifth win in 18 competitive games at home and they have the 2nd worst defence in Championship.
Brighton are in a bad run of results, but watching more closely I had an impression they haven’t been “that” bad. Three draws and one defeat of last four in league. Goalless draw at home vs. Hull (Hull with their strong away record), then point at the Den against Millwall. A minimal home defeat against West Ham in a game that could have gone in both directions and finally a hard fought point away at Brum. They’ve been defending very well and been dangerous in front. I think it will be working nice at Vicarage Road and find this price very generous.
Odd: 2.11 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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