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Blue Square Bet Premier, Barrow - Alfreton Town

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Barrow have pretty strong home record with six wins (two draws and two defeats) out of ten home games. At home turf, they’ve already beaten top two sides, Fleetwood Town (4-0) and Wrexham (3-1). It is only Wrexham’s defeat out of their 11 on the road. Barrow are winless in last three in league, but there was some improvement in previous game at Telford where the Bluebirds played pretty well, but thankfully to home goalie (named as man of the match) stayed empty handed.

Alfreton have the second worst record on the road, as they took only four points from their ten trips (eight defeats, draw and one win). This is long journey for them and as I understood they’ll be without three players in defence line and a winger.

I think there’s some decent value on home side and since four of their six home wins came with two or more goals margin, I go even further and am taking -0.75.

Bet: Barrow -0.75
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One Betting, Rochdale - Brentford

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Rochdale defeated Preston in previous round which however was their first win after six in league and two in Cup. At home they’ve won only two games out of nine, against bottom-half sides Wycombe and Scunny.

Brentford oppositely lost in previous round, against side from the top - Charlton at home. But, they seem to enjoy their travelling as they haven’t lost in ten on the road (eight in league and two in Cup). In last two trips, stayed undefeated against promotion contenders Sheff Wed and Notts County, while also defeated Charlton in Cup 3-0.

Brentford definitely shouldn’t be as high as 2.69, but considering decent amount of draws on both sides 0.0 handicap should be a reasonable limitation.

Bet: Brentford
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square Bet Premier, Bath City - Mansfield Town

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Think it’s more than generous price here. City are stuck to the bottom with a single win out of 20 matches (have lost seven out of 10 at home). They played at Wednesday a Cup replay against Dag&Red and lost after extra time. Game had a great importance for them, they played with the best team and I doubt they have that big squad to rotate players for game today. Also, they’ve been storming on assistant referee in that game who made a crucial mistake and (allegedly) eliminated City from the Cup. So, team morale couldn’t be sky high (even read somewhere that home fans will trade the tickets with the visitors).

Mansfield, although playing below their pre-season expectations, haven’t been noticing so bad results lately. On the road, they’re undefeated in eight outings (4 wins, 4 draws). No big missings and both clubs have signed some players on loan (Bath two, Mansfield three).

In my numbers, Mansfield shouldn’t be above evens and as I mentioned price is worth of a shout. Away win.

Bet: Mansfield
Odd: 2.29 (Canbet)
Stake: 6/10
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Premier League Betting, Man Utd - Newcastle

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No need to talk too much about Man Utd’s home record. This season they have five wins out of six, in previous one 18 wins and only one draw. For the notice is fact the most of their home wins came after the lead at the ht (lost the exact number, but let’s say 70%). After conceding six in city derby, in next five matches they didn’t concede a single goal. Till Benfica, but with mixed defence. Only Anderson is out (till February). United haven’t lost against the Toon in last 18 matches (both home and away), winning 14 of them!

Newcastle are noticing a surprising (shocking if you like) start of the campaign. Their first defeat came in last round against Man City (where they maybe deserved more than 1-3 defeat) and currently occupy CL spot! However, all their rivals on the road were bottom-half sides.

I don’t really expect Newcastle will stay at the top too long and fancy United to win this one with the lead at the half time. Odds are decent.

Bet: Man Utd/Man Utd (ht/ft)
Odd: 2.00 (PaddyPower, Bwin)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, WBA - Tottenham

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West Brom haven’t been bad lately, four wins, four draws and two defeats out of last ten. But on the other hand, they scored only nine goals in those ten and lost every match against top sides (Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool). Situation about Long and Odemwingie still isn’t clear, while second mentioned also started some public arguing with Hodgson. 

Spurs are flying high at the moment, they’ve noticed nine wins and a draw out of last ten and have scored two or more goals in each of last nine matches (averaging 17 shots per game this season)! Rafael van der Vaart is doubt for Redknapp who said the Dutch is out of contention (which forces me to believe he’ll start).

Anyway, I consider the worst scenario for my bet where WBA’s duo will play and Van der Vaart will not, but still find evens (or nearly below it) for away win as very appealing.

Bet: Tottenham
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 7/10
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League Two betting, Port Vale - Torquay

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Port Vale have three straight league defeats and adding two Cup games on that, they scored just once in last five matches. Also they won’t have fresh legs, as they played (and lost) mid week Cup game away at Grimsby.

Torquay are in a great run with four straight league wins (five, including Cup). Opponents in those weren’t sides from the top, but my impression is they’re simply too high and worth a punt.

Bet: Torquay 0.0
Odd: 2.18 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Birmingham - Peterborough

Brum lost at Reading and ended their run of nine unbeaten games. However, they should be strong promotion contenders (have three games in hand). At home are undefeated (4W, 2D) and have conceded only once. Big thing for them is no Europa League game on the sight and could be focused only on this tier.

The Posh have been scoring and conceding for fun, lately. Their defence is the weakest in Championship (29 conceded goals in 16 games), and they’re the only club in the division without a clean sheet. Some important players are returning to the squad, but I think Posh won’t be able to cope with Brum’s rock solid defence and to score as much as they concede.

Expect one nice and smooth home win.

Bet: Birmingham -0.75
Odd: 2.02 (Bet365)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Brentford - Charlton

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Brentford thrashed Bournemouth in Cup (defeated Basingstoke Town after that too), but in league have only one win of last seven at home. They have won more points playing on the road. Today, they’ll be without captain Kevin O'Connor.

Charlton are topping the table and have been scoring for fun. They’re in the run of four straight wins and have scored 20 goals in those! Seven away wins out of nine games make them obvious favorites here.

Think it won’t be easy as numbers suggest (my numbers as well). I can see a low scoring affair (with 0-0 ht) with Charlton to nick it in 2nd half. I am taking handicap and some draw covering.

Bet: Charlton -0.25
Odd: 1.94 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Arsenal

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Sort of obvious pick. Norwich have conceded in each of their home games (no clean sheet in any of 12 games this season), they play attacking football and three of their last four games produced four or more goals. Remind me on Blackpool last year.

Arsenal’s last seven matches in league were overs, while their five on the road produced 28 goals! Differently from the start of the season, they look pretty well and should be big favorites today. Additionally, Wenger made a deal with Dutch coach Van Persie to be rested against Germany and he’s fully fit. Arsenal have scored 13 goals in their last three meetings with Norwich.

Goals for me.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.21 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Spain Segunda betting, 13 November

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Villarreal B - Almeria

Villarreal B took 11 points of twelve opening games and have same points as first below the line - Girona. They’re in the run of four straight defeats (all four vs. top-seven sides) and have noticed only one win at home out of six. Interesting thing is they score and concede a lot when playing at home,  13-15 which are the biggest numbers in both columns.

Almeria look like strong promotion contender, currently second (two teams will directly qualify to Primera), three wins in a row and have four wins on the road (with one draw and one defeat). Oppositely from the hosts, their away games are low scoring affairs. Just one went in over and they’ve conceded a total of just three goals. Today’s game should be won by their defence.

Two teams in opposite trends with opposite ambitions. At this price, definitely worth of a shot.

Bet: Almeria
Odd: 2.38 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 4/10
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Blue Square North betting, 12 Nov

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Boston United - Hyde United

Blue Square North looks like two horses race, between Hyde and Stalybridge. Hyde had some drop in form with four games without a win, but overcame it with three wins in a row without conceding (scored eight in those). They’re fine on the road with six wins out of nine (a draw and two defeats).

I rate Boston as average league side. They’re in a decent run at home taking ten points of last four games, but so far in the season they haven’t hosted any of the top-six sides.   

2.30 looks like a generous price for away win.

Bet: Hyde
Odd: 2.30 (Betsson)
Stake: 4/10
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Nuneaton Town - Workington

Nuneaton are pushing for the promotion spot, they won five home games out of last seven and three of those five ended with two or more goals margin. They’ve conceded only 14 goals in the opening 15 games which is second best in the league.

Workington have noticed six defeats of eight away games (scored a total of four goals!) and four of those six were with more than one goal margin. They also have lost four of last five matches against Town (both home and away).

Bet: Nuneaton -1ah
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 4/10
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Switzerland betting, 6 Oct

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Grasshopper- Sion

Little trip to Switzerland.

Grasshopper have four defeats of six home games and all came in last four matches (scored only once in those). They also conceded eight in last two league games (scored two).

Sion are in the opposite trend as they’ve noticed five wins out of last seven in the league. Two defeats came against top side Basel (0-1 at home) and 2nd placed Luzern (0-2 away). The rest five, they won without conceding. Sion also won six of last seven matches against Grasshopper (both, home and away).

Enough to make this odd very appealing.

Bet: Sion
Odd: 2.30 (Expekt)
Stake: 4/10
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League One and Two, 5 Nov

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Charlton - Preston

Charlton are topping the table, they have three wins in a row (last two on the road) with goal difference in those 10-1. No injury or suspension worries.

Preston are in a shocking run with five defeats out of last six and conceded 16 in those! They have had plenty of problems with defending entire season, but downtrend started when they lost Neil Mellor and Iain Hume and stopped scoring. For this game they’ll also be without another forward Jamie Proctor and goalie Iain Turner.

At the first sight I didn’t see any value here, but with including Preston’s injured players I got 1.61 for Charlton. At asian market it’s even better (as usual).

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 1.80 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Plymouth - Morecambe

Situation at Plymouth looks better recently, since they’re out of administration and Carl Fletcher has become a permanent manager. However, they’re stuck to the bottom with 12 defeats out of 14 matches and have been playing with plenty of youngsters (fielded seven U 21 players against Cheltenham last week). Besides that, their two defenders (Griffiths and Berry) are out, while teenage striker Matt Lecointe and goalie Jake Cole are in serious doubt to be fit.

Morecambe are third and undefeated on the road with five wins and three draws out of eight. They also have some injury worries with skipper Will Haining, forward Jason Price and defender Laurence Wilson all facing a late fitness test.

I think the market is overreacting on recent improvements at Plymouth and see this price as very generous.

Bet: Morecambe -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10
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League One betting, Exeter - Carlisle

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The Grecians are in the big uptrend, since they’ve collected seven of possible nine points in last three rounds. And while their wins over Rochdale and Walsall were no surprise, then a point and four scored goals at Bramall Lane surely were shocking (for me, at least). They have kept only one clean sheet of last 14 competitive matches, last four went in over and three of those four were with four goals or more. After mentioned run, their confidence is certainly sky high.

Carlisle are also free scoring/conceding side, only two times haven’t conceded (Bury and Yeovil) and their last five matches produced three or more goals (four of those were over 3.5). And they’re also in a good shape with one defeat out of last seven (away to Charlton, 0-4).

Both sides should be confident ahead the game. They score and concede a lot and I think it won’t be kind of a game where opposition could cancel each other. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.94 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, Blackburn - Chelsea

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Blackburn are third from the bottom and I can imagine them in Championship next year, but they have a goal threat in every game. They still haven’t kept a clean sheet, but failed to score only two times at home (Everton - missed two penalties and Man City). They have played eight competitive games at home (six league - two Cup), and seven of those went in over (five with four goals or more). 

Chelsea have plenty of problems in the defence line. There could be few reasons like adjusting to still new manager, too attacking set up and Cech far from being impressive. They have kept only one clean sheet of opening ten games, in the first round at Stoke. Main problem at Ewood Park should be defending set-pieces and keeping eye on Samba.

Cech looks very bad, lately. I found that he has the worst saves-to-shots percentage (46%) in the league. And when goalie is insecure, whole defence becomes shaky. My point is, Chelsea will need at least two goals for a win which could make a high scoring affair.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.01 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 9/10
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Championship betting 1 Nov

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Crystal Palace - Portsmouth

Palace are flying really high (they remind me on Newcastle in Premier) and are at shocking 3^rd place. They’re also undefeated in six league matches (four wins, two draws) and haven’t conceded in last four.

Pompey have a miserable record on the road with just two points of seven away games (including previous season, eleven games without a win) and have noticed five defeats in a row. They got smashed vs. Derby at Saturday, conceding three goals for a half of hour and despite Sean O'Driscoll is already seen as a new manager, I don’t expect any positive impact on the squad (yet).

It’s a very good price on Palace (everything above evens is a very good price, in my opinion), but some covering of a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Crystal Palace -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

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Watford - Brighton

The Hornets defeated Peterborough at Sunday and ended a run of four straight defeats (all four against top-half sides though). However it was fifth win in 18 competitive games at home and they have the 2^nd worst defence in Championship.

Brighton are in a bad run of results, but watching more closely I had an impression they haven’t been “that” bad. Three draws and one defeat of last four in league. Goalless draw at home vs. Hull (Hull with their strong away record), then point at the Den against Millwall. A minimal home defeat against West Ham in a game that could have gone in both directions and finally a hard fought point away at Brum. They’ve been defending very well and been dangerous in front. I think it will be working nice at Vicarage Road and find this price very generous.

Bet: Brighton 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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