Value betting, France 31 Oct

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Nantes - Racing Lens

Another interesting game, here. Nantes are generally very good hosts with three wins out of last four at home. Last week they suffered an away defeat at Boulogne and it was their first in last seven league matches. Visitors are still adjusting on the life in the second tier, currently are third from the bottom and without a win in last five in league (haven’t scored in four of those five). Last week Cup defeat vs. Olympique Marseille could have only brought more depression to the club. Nantes also have won three of last four vs. Lens at home (without conceding in any of those four). I go for a home win.

Bet: Nantes
Odd: 2.29 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Value betting, Poland 31 Oct

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Ruch Chorzow - Polonia Warszawa

Massive value, here! Ruch have noticed four home wins of six matches and three of last four (one defeat, against top side Polonia). On the other hand, Polonia took only a point from their four on the road. They’re without a win in last four in league and in previous round took only a point from visiting the bottom side Cracovia (Cracovia’s first point of six home games).

Now I know Polonia is bigger name of Polish football and maybe it’s expected they’ll improve and start climbing on the table (that's what I don’t know), but considering numbers it’s a big value on home win.

Bet: Ruch
Odd: 2.42 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10

Probably one more to follow...
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Premier League betting, Norwich City - Blackburn Rovers

                             

Norwich have been playing very well, recently. They’ve lost just once in last five (Old Trafford 0-2) and at home have just one defeat of last 16 encounters (including Championship). However, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their all 10 league and cup matches this season and have conceded in 13 of the last 14 home games.

Blackburn are stuck to the bottom, only one win of nine in a league (Arsenal 4-3!). Some moral boost is League Cup win over Newcastle in midweek, but on the other hand they played 120 mins with full strength (Norwich will have fresh legs). They also haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 12 games this season (nine went in over) and did it just once in 23 on the road!

I am pretty sure Norwich won’t be just sitting back, trying to win in a tactical battle (if they didn’t at Anfield Road and Old Trafford, why they should at home against Blackburn?). On the other hand, Blackburn gained some confidence and probably have decent expectations from this game. I am going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.95 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Sheff Utd - Exeter

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The Blades are ending a tough schedule, in last five they played Charlton, Sheff Wed, Preston and MK Dons. They’re undefeated in four (two wins, two draws) and after a midweek win over the Dons, they’ve climbed on fourth place. I think they have more potential then they have been showing.

Exeter made their first away win in midweek (Walsall 2-1), but till then hadn’t even scored and noticed five defeats of seven (goal diff 2-11). Additionally, four of those five were with two or three goals margin (2-0 and 3-0).

Usually don’t like to be involved in something that could become a “public bet”, but United should be simply too much for the visitors.

Bet: Sheff Utd -1ah
Odd: 2.02 (Canbet)
Stake: 9/10
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Championship betting, Barnsley - Bristol City

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This seems to be a six-pointer. Barnsley are undefeated in four at home, two consecutive wins. That two and third league win came against fellow strugglers - bottom half sides (Millwall, Coventry, Burnley). 

The Robins have been noticing the worst start in league since 1933. Only one league win of starting 13 games (and that one came vs. Leicester away!). They have five straight defeats (and seven of eight). Got new manager, but it didn’t help in previous round as they looked helpless against the Brum at home.

There’s some chance of a draw (and -0.25 should be better choice than clear win), but I think it’s very unlikely that City will win this one.

Bet: Barnsley -0.25
Odd: 1.88 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Carling Cup and League One, 25 Oct

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Aldershot Town - Man Utd

After humiliation, this should be a punishment for the superstars. Vidic will lead the lads, some of other first-teamers won’t be rested as well. Giggs, Berbatov, Owen, Valencia, Park Ji-Sung, all of them could appear! Alex Ferguson stated that he’ll be looking for “an instant response” from his players. Usually I don’t care too much what he (all managers) used to talk before the game, but it seems he’s about to crack and an indolent attitude tonight could bring some radical measurement to any of the players, facing the axe or at least boot in the head. Ha ha However, I feel it won’t be so smooth and easy. This will be the biggest game in the history of, certainly fanatical hosts. Small pitch and mud (forecast is light rain) in combination with combative Shots, could make visitors’ lives miserable. I can see them scoring, once at least. 

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Bet: Over 3.5
Odd: 2.20 (Stan James)
Stake: 7/10

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Carlisle - Sheff Wed

Carlisle at home played six games. Against rivals from the bottom side of the table (Bournemouth, Stevenage and Brentford), they won or played a draw. But against all teams from the upper half (Notts Co, MK Dons and Hartlepool), they lost all pretty easily. Also, this match comes after weekend trashing at Charlton.

The Owls look like strong contender for a direct promotion. Five wins of last six games (run started after a shock at Stevenage, 1-5) and they’re just a point behind 2nd placed Hudders. Two central defenders are suspended, one of each side (Matty Robson - Reda Johnson).

I expect away win, but from some reason (hate rainy games, really) cannot rule out a draw.

Bet: Sheff Wed 0.0
Odd: 1.98 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 8/10
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Championship betting, Bristol City - Birmingham

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With only 6 points of 12 games, the Robins are noticing the worst start in 78 years. They’re rock bottom, only side in Championship without a home win (2 draws, 4 defeats) and shipping goals for fun (23 goals - the worst in league). However, syndrome of the new manager will be present since Derek McInnes (ex St. Johnstone) took the charge.

The Brummies have finally hit some good form, defeating Nott Forest away, Leicester at home and making two wins in Europa League. However, they played in Belgium at Thursday and are short with the time for recover (and it’s not like Hughton has that big squad to not be affected). The fact of my interest is every time when they played in Europe, next league game produced at least four goals. Birmingham have scored in each of their nine league games.

I’d dare to give some advantage to the Robins, but expect a goalfest and go for over instead.

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Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Value betting, Brazil 22 Oct

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Since I am stuck to the bed suffering from some nasty cold, I’ve done some extra work. In fact, don’t know what else I could be doing...

Fluminense - Atletico Mineiro

Title against relegation contenders. Flu have five home wins in a row, nine of last ten matches. Mineiro, this season, have 10 away defeats of 15 games (seven of last nine). I see Mineiro pushing for a possible equalizer and conceding few more.

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Bet: Fluminense -1
Odd: 2.35 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
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Sport Recife - Goias, Sp. Recife @ 1.79

Same situation about this one, promotion against relegation contenders. Recife were in a downtrend of five winless games, ended it in previous round defeating 2^nd from the bottom Salgueiro. Beside that, very good home record with 10 wins out of 15. Goias have noticed 11 defeats of 15 away games, three defeats in a row, six of last eight. Odd on Recife has been raising, I like it.

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Bet: Sp. Recife
Odd: 1.79 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Championship betting, Hull City - Watford

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Second best defence in the league, against the side that hasn’t score in four of last five and have three straight defeats. Hull are in a great shape, undefeated in last seven league matches, three home wins in a row (Reading, Portsmouth and Cardiff). Things to worry is Hull also have scored only nine in eleven games this season (same as Watford) and only four in five at home. However, momentum is on home side and while they could easily finish in the play-off zone, Watford will be surely struggling to avoid relegation.

Home win, no handicap.

Bet: Hull
Odd: 1.81 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League betting, Bolton - Sunderland

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It’s a real six pointer, here. Both sides have had a bad start of the season and this game, in case of a new failure, could cost a job both managers. I am pretty sure, neither of these sides would be satisfied with the point and am well surprised with the odds. Bolton’s every of eight league games this season went in over (six of them with four or more goals), while Sunderland’s last five produced three or more (conceded two in four of those five).

This should be really entertaining game. Neither of these sides is able to defend properly and both are desperate to win. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Huddersfield - Preston

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Well, being lucky sometimes or not Hudders are now undefeated in 38 (if I counted well) league games. Despite the big amount of draws in those 38, they’re second and have scored at least twice in every of last six matches at Galpharm.

After a slow start, Preston made a run of seven straight wins in the league. Then made two, well at least for me, surprising defeats on the road vs. Leyton (unlucky) and Walsall (deserved). Few days ago, in the midweek game, they got trashed against another promotion candidate - Sheff Utd (2-4). Beside some fatigue (Hudders had a free midweek), North End will be without maybe two best players Neil Mellor (Phil Brown has refused to confirm it) and Ian Hume. Additionally, midfielders Coutts and Nicholson, and defender Brian McLean all picked up knocks against the Blades and will have late fitness test.

Personally, I avoid taking Hudders when they’re short priced, they’ve wasted too much points against bottom sides just because relaxed attitude and underestimation. This is different, Preston will demand their full attention and best effort. For me, home win is clear as a tear.

Bet: Huddersfield -0.5
Odd: 1.91 (William Hill)
Stake: 8/10
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English value betting, Friday 21 Oct

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Accrington Stanley - Cheltenham Town

Stanley have only one league win out of last eight (Aldershot), while Chelthenham have noticed three straight wins (two away) and Cup win at Wycombe (scored 10 in those four). Here’re the opposite trends and very good momentum for the Town. 3.07 for their win looks tasty and represents a nice value.

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Bet: Cheltenham
Odd: 3.07 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10 

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Cambridge Utd. - Lincoln City

This is the clash between the sides that go in opposite directions. Utd are contender for promotion, City for relegation. The hosts have a decent home record with five wins out of eight, Lincoln have five defeats out of eight away. Last time on the road City defeated second from the bottom - Alfreton, but before that five straight defeats with only one goal scored. Some value on a home win.  

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Bet: Cambridge
Odd: 1.84 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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blue square bet premier, 18 Oct

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Like the look of two games in Blue Square Bet Premier.

Darlington at home vs. Barrow. After run of six games without a win, the hosts made three wins out of last four. Visitors have three defeats of last four away games, in last two conceded five in each. Momentum is on a home side and 2.16 at 188bet for their win looks very generous.

Southport away vs. Gateshead. Gateshead have very good record at home with just one defeat (four wins and three draws), but they’re in a serious downtrend. Two defeats of last three games and in those two conceded nine goals! Opponents Wrexham and Luton are top sides, but confidence cannot be sky-high. On the other hand, Southport have noticed four wins of last five games and five straight wins on the road! In my numbers, no way Gateshead could be as short as 1.85 and I see price on the visitors as very appealing. 

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Bet 1: Darlington to win
Odd: 2.16 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
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Bet 2: Southport +0.25
Odd: 2.08 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Brazil betting, two value bets 16 Oct

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Two value bets for Brazil night.

Botafogo - Atl. Paranaense

For a home win, the best offered odd is 1.57. In my notebook it is a bit lower and since Botafogo won seven games by two or more of last ten wins, I am taking -1.

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Bet: Botafogo -1ah
Odd: 2.00 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 2/10
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Santos - Gremio

Santos have only one win of last five games (four defeats), but are generally good at home with 7 wins of 13 home wins. Gremio have two defeats in a row and not so good record on the road with 9 defeats of 13 games (in those, scored only 9 goals and conceded 24). Additionally, they haven’t defeated Santos away for more than 10 years. Again, there’s some value on home side.

Bet: Santos -0.5
Odd: 2.21 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
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Premier and League One, Sat 15th Oct

Stoke - Fulham

No big philosophy here. Hosts are traditionally very good at home, visitors are bad away. Tony Pulis made some big shopping at the transfer market with intention to “step on the next level” (whatever it is). They have had some problems with the fatigue caused by Europa League, but there’s the same situation with Fulham. Stoke have scored only four goals in seven games, Fulham same number in opening six. Then, they trashed QPR 6-0 at home and pumped the odds for home win far above evens. The Potters are undefeated at home in the first three, playing against strong sides L’pool, Spurs and Man Utd. I expect a tight game, lots of set-pieces, combat in the air and home win by one.

Bet: Stoke -0.25
Odd: 1.88 (Bet365)

Stake: 8/10  

Stevenage - Charlton

Interesting odds here. Stevenage started their debut season very well, even thrashed Sheff Wed at home 5-1. After that, four straight league defeats. On the other hand, Charlton are topping the table and are still undefeated. On the road five wins out of six (one draw) with an average of two goals per a game. With Hudders on the road and Sheff Wed playing Steel City derby at Bramall Lane, it could be a nice chance to make a distance on the top. No significant missings on the both sides and they have never played before. I have no illusions this will be an afternoon walk for the Addicks, but am pretty shocked to see Charlton as high as 2.60. 0-2 correct score.

Bet: Charlton -0.25
Odd: 2.24 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Brazil betting, two value bets 12 Oct

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Bahia - Cruzeiro, Bahia -0.25 @ 2.15 (bet365)

Bahia have three straight home wins, Cruzeiro three straight defeats on the road. The hosts also stayed undefeated at the hands of Botafogo in previous round which should be a decent morale boost. My only concern is their previous meetings that saw Botafogo winning last four (both home and away) and at the same place they won last time 7-0. But, at this price it’s a decent value on Bahia.

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Bet: Bahia -0.25
Odd: 2.15 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Corinthians - Botafogo, Corinthians -0.5 @ 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

Corinthians are the first with great home record 10W-1D-3D. Botafogo are fifth, but it seems they’re in some kind of downtrend. Winless in last three (one win of last six in league), in the previous round played only a draw against Bahia. Nothing much to say, in my opinion this is a good price for a home win.

Bet: Corinthians
Odd: 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 2/10
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League One Betting, Oldham - MK Dons

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MK Dons had a mini crisis of four games without a win (including top oppositions Hudders, Sheff Wed and Charlton), while in the last round ended it with great 3-0 home victory over Notts County. They’re full of optimism, want to win the league and will certainly finish inside top six. Paul Dickov’s side has only one home win out of five (Rochdale), counting previous season it is one out of 15. They have experience (including Shefki Kuqi) and will have plenty of problems to cope with the Dons’ pace and passing game. Monday always calls for some caution, so no straight win.


Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Value betting, Flamengo - Fluminense

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I’ve been struggling to understand odds for this game. In my numbers Fluminense shouldn’t be odds-on, in fact Flamengo shouldn’t be above evens to win this game. Ok, Fluminense have only one defeat of last eight, Flamengo in the previous home game defeated bottom side America, before that winless in four at home... But, seven days ago Flamengo won vs. Sao Paulo on the road which should be a big morale boost and they've lost (against Flu) just once out of last 14 matches (both home and away). Fluminense are champions from previous season, Flamengo from season before. Again, price looks simply wrong. Draw no bet eats my value and I am going on straight home win.

Bet: Flamengo
Odd: 2.95 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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League One betting, Sheff Wed - Chesterfield

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Sheff Wed have the perfect home record with five out of five (goal diff 13-4) and in every game scored at least two. In the previous round, they noticed a massive win against (undefeated till then) Hartlepool on the road. After disappointing previous season, Wednesday finally look like promotion contender. Nothing much to say about Chesterfield, on the road defeated Bournemouth and lost other four. I read somewhere this is sort of a derby (not sure is that just because the distance) and that should be a reason for pretty decent price for the hosts.

Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75
Odd: 1.96 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Russia 2 betting, Khimki – Alania

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Khimki made two away defeats in a row, but before that had five straight home wins (I took into account all five were against bottom side clubs). Alania should be a stronger side, they played in Europa League qualifications against Besiktas, but in the league have three defeats and a draw of last four away. Odd on a home side is simply too high. Small stake, of course.

Bet: Khimki 0.0
Odd: 3.75 (Sportingbet)
Stake: 2/10
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Premier League betting, Tottenham - Arsenal

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Kind of an obvious bet. I cannot remember when (ever?) Spurs were so short (2.20) against Arsenal, at any place in any competition. They’ll have some confidence. On the other hand, Arsenal are 13th, same confidence but leaky defence. There were 13 goals scored last year in three games between these rivals, Tottenham have kept only one clean sheet in last 31 matches against Arsenal. Over is a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.5

Odd: 1.81 (188bet)

Stake: 8/10

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Saturday bets - 1 Oct

Reading - Middlesbrough

Will be very brief, today. Think the odds aren’t set correctly here. Reading are not the same team from last season (without Shane Long). Same thing was in their previous two away games when they were rated 2.20-2.35. They won seven points from last three though, but not top rivals (Donny, Coventry, B.City). ‘Boro are still undefeated, four of four on the road with best defence in league - only five conceded in first nine (haven’t conceded in last four). Price is very good and main reason for my bet.

Bet: 'Boro 0.0
Odd: 2.12 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10  

Crystal Palace - West Ham

Palace look more solid than last season, but I think they’re punching above their weight and expect them to hit a bad streak very soon. They scored three goals in midweek derby to defeat Brighton (six of their 12 goals they scored in last 12 mins), but before that had three defeats in a row. The Hammers have had plenty of problems at home (last time lost vs. Ipswich 0-1), but on the road three defeats and one draw against Millwall. Conceded just one goal in these four. As with ‘Boro, I feel the price is too good to be refused.

Bet: West Ham -0.25

Odd: 1.87 (Pinnacle)

Stake: 7/10  

Brentford - Huddersfield

Brentford got new manager and in the first game defeated Oldham away. It is certainly a morale boost for the squad that in three home games before that noticed just a point. Hudders are undefeated in (I think) 35 league games so far. They are again promotion contenders, although have six draws of opening 10 games (four wins). They’re usually overconfident, they know to act like prima donnas and I am avoiding them against bottom sides. Brentford have enough quality to pull out the best of them, but aren’t strong enough to win. In my opinion, of course. Additionally, Hudders conceded two late goals last weekend against Leyton at home (2-2) which is embarrassing I’d say and need to respond.

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Bet: Hudders 0.0
Odd: 1.96 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 8/10
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