Nottingham Forest - Scunthorpe
The most interesting will be the fight for the last play-off space. Forest have clear calculation. They’ll get it with six points from games against, all but predictable, Scunny at home and Palace on the road that could be a real last day cracker. The main problem is defence line that conceded 17 goals on last 7 games. Scunny could be able score and push this game in over. But also, a sensation is not a strange word for the visitors. They defeated Forest at home, where also trashed the leaders QPR (4-1). On the road shocked Hull and Reading. It’s an easy choice to leave this game alone.
Leeds - Burnley (1:45 cet)
Leeds need to win both times (in last round they’ll visit QPR who btw. could face a penalty and points deduction at Tuesday) and to hope Forest (and Millwall of course) will slip somewhere. After they wasted many points in last five rounds it’s not so big chance, but Leeds are the kings of drama and since the end of golden era in 90s just very few times they haven’t presented a stressful finish to their fans. Burnley noticed only a draw at home vs. Pompey, it could affect their morale but they’re still one point above Leeds. Draw is unacceptable for both sides and whoever will take a lead, will also try to improve goal difference for the final ranking. I could give some advantage to Leeds, but my main choice will be goals.
Millwall - Swansea
There will be hell, the Lions are in the race again and packed Den will host Swans. They won six of last nine games and big boost is a return of their key man and top scorer, Steve Morison, after he served a three match suspension. Swansea have secured their play-off spot where they will probably face Reading. Reasons for a good effort are 4th place (playing re-match at home) and improving recent away record (a draw and four defeats out of last five) and self-confidence before decisive matches. It will be hard, since Swans have a discouraging record on the road against top side teams, losing seven out of nine. Another thing is very interesting. In the previous game, Brendan Rodgers left on the bench probably his best player - Scott Sinclair. He said that young player has never played the full season, looks very tired and he’ll try to manage it. If you’re afraid for the best player, the Den is definitely not a place for him. So, maybe he will just save him for play-off.
Derby - Bristol City
Derby are safe, but looked in a very good shape, putting some more than decent displays recently. Defeated Leeds at home, grabbed a point at Loftus Road and undeservedly lost at Norwich in 96th minute. A win in the last home game could be a satisfaction. This will be also the last game for Robbie Savage and I can expect some additional effort from the players for their skipper. City are also safe, but look like they are already planning summer holidays as they’ve noticed four defeats and a draw out of last five. They will also miss the best striker, Nicky Maynard.
Hull City - Crystal Palace
Hull blew their play-off chances, Palace need a point to be mathematically safe. The hosts haven’t won in 15 of 22 home games, losing vs. bottom sides Scunny and Sheff Utd. Palace are a tough nut to crack on the road recently, taking two points from last two trips (Donny and Leicester). Four of last five games between these clubs ended undecided. This game has a draw written all over it.
Bet 1: Leeds - Burnley, over 2.50, Odd: 1.80 Interwetten, Stake: 8/10
Bet 2: Millwall -0.25, Odd: 2.11 Canbet, Stake: 8/10
Bet 3: Derby to win, Odd: 2.30 William Hill, Stake: 7/10
Gamble: Hull - C.Palace, draw @ 3.75 bet365, Stake: 2/10
(Early bets, since the odds will probably drop tomorrow.)
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p
