Blackpool - Stoke

This is do or die game for the Seasiders (as the previous two were though). Only goal difference is keeping them above the line and beside Stoke, they’ll host Bolton and visit Spurs and Man Utd. A failure today would probably send them to Championship. They have far worst defence in Premier that in average concedes more than 2 goals per a game. At some moments they don’t even look serious, although showed some improvement against the Toon. Both sides have scored in every of previous 17 games at Bloomfield Road.

Stoke are safe and only area of interest is FA Cup and the final next Sunday. They don’t need points, but I doubt they’d like to damage team morale by losing from the side that is winless in last seven games and has one win of last 14. Besides that, Stoke haven’t lost there since 1964 (10 games). They will miss Etherington who is very important player for the team, but some other guys are in a top shape. Kenwyne Jones, Walters and Pennant should be running the riot. Also, I’m not sure Blackpool will be able to defend the set pieces.

Personally I’ll be cheering for Blackpool. Side that plays 4-3-3 in Premier League regardless the name of opponent should stay, at least for the sake of the game. They will be fighting and attacking, but poor defending will probably send them down to Championship. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.00 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Championship 30 Apr - Preview of the round, betting tips and previews

Nottingham Forest - Scunthorpe

The most interesting will be the fight for the last play-off space. Forest have clear calculation. They’ll get it with six points from games against, all but predictable, Scunny at home and Palace on the road that could be a real last day cracker. The main problem is defence line that conceded 17 goals on last 7 games. Scunny could be able score and push this game in over. But also, a sensation is not a strange word for the visitors. They defeated Forest at home, where also trashed the leaders QPR (4-1). On the road shocked Hull and Reading. It’s an easy choice to leave this game alone.

Leeds - Burnley (1:45 cet)

Leeds need to win both times (in last round they’ll visit QPR who btw. could face a penalty and points deduction at Tuesday) and to hope Forest (and Millwall of course) will slip somewhere. After they wasted many points in last five rounds it’s not so big chance, but Leeds are the kings of drama and since the end of golden era in 90s just very few times they haven’t presented a stressful finish to their fans. Burnley noticed only a draw at home vs. Pompey, it could affect their morale but they’re still one point above Leeds. Draw is unacceptable for both sides and whoever will take a lead, will also try to improve goal difference for the final ranking. I could give some advantage to Leeds, but my main choice will be goals.

Millwall - Swansea

There will be hell, the Lions are in the race again and packed Den will host Swans. They won six of last nine games and big boost is a return of their key man and top scorer, Steve Morison, after he served a three match suspension. Swansea have secured their play-off spot where they will probably face Reading. Reasons for a good effort are 4th place (playing re-match at home) and improving recent away record (a draw and four defeats out of last five) and self-confidence before decisive matches. It will be hard, since Swans have a discouraging record on the road against top side teams, losing seven out of nine. Another thing is very interesting. In the previous game, Brendan Rodgers left on the bench probably his best player - Scott Sinclair. He said that young player has never played the full season, looks very tired and he’ll try to manage it. If you’re afraid for the best player, the Den is definitely not a place for him. So, maybe he will just save him for play-off.

Derby - Bristol City

Derby are safe, but looked in a very good shape, putting some more than decent displays recently. Defeated Leeds at home, grabbed a point at Loftus Road and undeservedly lost at Norwich in 96th minute. A win in the last home game could be a satisfaction. This will be also the last game for Robbie Savage and I can expect some additional effort from the players for their skipper. City are also safe, but look like they are already planning summer holidays as they’ve noticed four defeats and a draw out of last five. They will also miss the best striker, Nicky Maynard.

Hull City - Crystal Palace

Hull blew their play-off chances, Palace need a point to be mathematically safe. The hosts haven’t won in 15 of 22 home games, losing vs. bottom sides Scunny and Sheff Utd. Palace are a tough nut to crack on the road recently, taking two points from last two trips (Donny and Leicester). Four of last five games between these clubs ended undecided. This game has a draw written all over it. 

Bet 1: Leeds - Burnley, over 2.50, Odd: 1.80 Interwetten, Stake: 8/10

Bet 2: Millwall -0.25, Odd: 2.11 Canbet, Stake: 8/10

Bet 3: Derby to win, Odd: 2.30 William Hill, Stake: 7/10

Gamble: Hull - C.Palace, draw @ 3.75 bet365, Stake: 2/10

(Early bets, since the odds will probably drop tomorrow.)

*table taken from bet365.com

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Stoke - Wolverhampton

With five games to play, Stoke still aren’t safe with five points more (and this game in hand) than Wigan. They have only two wins out of last eight league games (total of eight points), but at home their record is more than decent (as always under Pulis). They have won four and drawn two out of last six at Britannia. Ricardo Fuller is out, John Carew is available.

Mick McCarthy and Wolves are felling the fire under the feet. They are one point below the line and are in the group of 7-8 clubs who have every reason to worry about Premiership status. Even a point wouldn’t improve their position too much and I believe they’ll go for a win. Problem is they have the worst away record in Premier with only two wins out of 16 games and total of eight(!) points (defeated Villa and L’pool though). Stephen Hunt is contention, Ebanks-Blake in doubt.

At the first glance and as the odds suggest, this should be a nervous game and low scoring affair. But, the fact is one point doesn’t mean too much for any side. Stoke are favourites and I think they won’t just sit back and keep the opening score. Why should they? They’re hosting the worst travellers in the league. On the other hand, Wolves will have to find the way to score which should make them even more vulnerable than usual. Also, I wouldn’t overlook the possibility goal difference will be very important at the end. I’ll go against public opinion and take goals.

 Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.14 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Cardiff - QPR

Cardiff made an April run of four games without a win and just when I thought they’re about to blow it again, they noticed four wins in a row (12-2 goal diff. in those). However, they dropped on 3rd place after Norwich’s win at Ipswich. Norwich also have not so bad schedule and maybe could take all points in last three games. So, this is crucial game for the Blue Birds. Top scorer, Jay Bothroyd, is fully fit, goalie Heaton could also start the game.

Queens Park are topping the table with big eight points more than Cardiff and Neil Warnock states they don’t feel any pressure. The true is they looked like that in a home draw vs. Derby, but they actually have three more tough games after Wales. At Monday they’ll host play-off contenders Hull, then go to “you’ll never know what to expect from us” Watford and host Leeds in potential last round cracker! They also have problem outside the field, since the transfer of Alejandro Faurlin is under FA investigation and eventually could result in points deduction (Warnock says no way)! Rangers have far best defence in 2nd tier and have kept clean sheet in four of last five games (in fifth Scunny scored four).

I give some advantage to home side, expect a tough game and their win by one. 1-0 correct score.

To play:

Cardiff: Preston(A), ‘Boro(H), Burnley(A)

QPR: Hull(H), Watford(A), Leeds(H)

Norwich: Derby(H), Portsmouth(A), Coventry(H)

Bet: Cardiff -0.25
Odd: 1.95 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Brighton - Southampton

The Seagulls are new champions in League One and they did it on impressive way. 17 wins and 4 draws at home, best attack in league (don’t count Peterborough, of course), best defence, eleven wins and a draw in last 12 games! Hats off. Biggest betting concern is will they “slow down” and play with the youngsters. Or will they try to reach 100 points as Poyet mentioned few times. I think they wouldn’t like to lose at home and to lose from big rivals. The matter of principles, I’d say.

The Saints are also in a great shape and are pushing for a direct promotion. Hudders won today and they dropped on 3rd place (two games in hand). They have eight wins of last ten (one draw and defeat) and considering scored and conceded goals they’re just behind Brighton. Key player Lallana will probably play (despite rated as in doubt), Chamberlen and defender Harding as well.

I guess there’s a possibility to Poyet send youngsters, lose the game and pretend he doesn’t care. I don’t believe in that and expect a fight. Two best attacks and two clubs that like to pass. Goals for me, once again.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Leeds - Reading

A big pressure on Simon Grayson’s side. They have won just once of last six games, but still occupying the 6th spot. They’re top league scorers (78 goals on total of 42 games and 46 on 21 at home), they have scored on 13 of last 14 home games and 9 of last 11 at Elland Road went in over. This is do or die game for Leeds, another failure would see them below the line. Key defender and skipper, Richard Naylor, could make his first start since October. But, key question is will Luciano Becchio be in the line up. Considering odds movement (raising the prices on home side and goals), he’s out.

Visitors are the absolute hit. Twelve league games without defeat, with eight consecutive wins! Differently from the hosts they won’t feel any pressure since the play-off spot is safe (nine points above the line), but they could see a chance for a direct promotion. They are the third league scorers in total (73 goals on 42 games) and second best on the road (34 goals on 21 games) scored in each of last 13 league games, in nine of those scored twice or more. Striker Noel Hunt is in doubt.

This is the game of great importance, especially for Leeds. Both sides are attacking minded and whoever concedes first won’t give up. I have no clue about the winner, but goals should be a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
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Tottenham - Arsenal

Spurs are in the race for CL spot (three points less than Man City with a game in hand) and this is more than “just” a derby game. They have lost just once against Arsenal in last eight competitive games (0-3 at Emirates) and lost also once in last 26 league games at White Hart Lane. Peter Crouch will be in the team after he served the suspension, Pienaar is rated as in doubt.

For the Gunners, this is the very last chance. Just one win of last six in the league and they’re seven points below United (with this game in hand). Also we’ll see how they will react on 102th minute shocker three days ago. However, Arsenal are still the best travellers in Premier (29 points of 15 games) and are undefeated in all six away games in 2011. Tragedian, Emmanuel Eboue, will be probably replaced by recovered Bacary Sagna. Denilson, Rosicky and Almunia are also fit.

Both sides are desperate for points, but don’t have impressive defensive records lately. I think this would be an open game (play for a goal more), not a tactical battle. Odds are more than acceptable.

Bet: Over 2.5
 Odd: 1.97 188bet, Pinnacle
 Stake: 8/10
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Swindon - MK Dons

That’s what you get when you sell the best players. Instead a play-off spot, a ticket for the lower division. The Robins scored a late winner and won at Brentford which was first Paul Hart’s win since he took the charge (eight games) and first club’s win after 18 matches! That’s some boost, but they still lack in quality and remain as serious candidates for moving down. Goalie Lucas, striker Andrew and defender Frampton could all return after injuries.

The Dons are doing well in the third tier, they look safe for play-off, have a decent quality and play nice passing game. Defeat at the last trip vs. S’ton was the first failure after eight games (six of them were wins), but they bounced back in the previous round against Carlisle (coming from behind). Not so good record on the road, only seven wins of 20 games but five of those came in last 8 games. Defender Woodards is out, striker Balanta could start after he scored in previous round coming from the bench.

Bookies give the advantage to the home side and cannot say I’m not well surprised with the odds. The fact Swindon are desperate for a win doesn’t mean they will defeat one of the best squad in the league. Maybe I can see them snatching a draw, but win... No, I don’t think so. Going on the Dons with securing the draw.

Bet: MK Dons
Odd: 2.08 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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West Ham - Aston Villa

There are plenty of conspiracy theories why West Ham will stay in Premier. I will keep to the field and would say they will probably stay because they possess much more quality in players than their fellow strugglers. Problem is defence line, one of the worst in league. They have conceded 56 goals in 32 games, seven in last two. Skipper Scott Parker is rated in doubt and his absence would be a huge miss in the midfield. However, this is a make or break for the Hammers and we will see an ultimate effort. Kieron Dyer could be in the team after finishing his loan spell Ipswich. West Ham have lost only three of 14 matches against bottom-half sides.

Villa are also (in my honest opinion) team of unused potential. Randy Lerner’s lack of sense for sport and investment costs them a fight for Europe. Players hate Houllier (I cannot blame them) and that is probably the main reason for the underachieving. They defeated the Toon in the previous round, but still are not safe (five points above the line). Their counter-attack approach should suit more for the away games, but Villa have noticed five winless games on the road (three defeats, two draws), have conceded 12 in those and haven’t kept a clean sheet in last 17 away league matches.

West Ham are desperate for three points, but Villa are definitely able to score. Odds on goals are more than decent. Another over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.07 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Cardiff - Portsmouth

It seems Welsh lads have learnt the lesson from previous years, when in this part of the season were blowing away their promotion chances. They have three wins in a row, with a fourth would come back to the second place. They last five games produced 20 goals and Cardiff have an average of one conceded goal in home games (Pompey’s average is one scored goal per away game). Stephen McPhail is in doubt, Chopra is out. Today’s win would be the first double over Pompey since 1971.

In February and March, Portsmouth made a run of six consecutive wins (without a single goal conceded) and secured a Championship status. After that, just one win of next six encounters. In the previous round, suffered an unexpected defeat at home against Coventry. Playing at Cardiff is always a good motivation, but there won’t be any pressure. Hayden Mullins is out.

I have impression that 1.55 for a home win doesn’t represent the real risk. Expect Pompey to score and to push the game in the over. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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Watford - Norwich

Watford have lost three games in a row (‘Boro, Coventry and Hull) and seems already gave up from a play-off spot. They are on my black list, simply they win when nobody wants them to win. And this is game just like that, they have no real motivation, but can play fully relaxed and score. When we talk about scoring, Watford at home have unreal average of 3.2 goals per a game (36-28 goal difference at 20 games). No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

Norwich, on the other hand, are fighting for a direct promotion. They’re second with a point more than Welsh duo Cardiff and Swans. In the previous round, they suffered a heavy defeat at Swans 0-3 and ended a run of nine games without defeat. Interesting fact is, under Paul Lambert (since August 2009), they haven’t made a two defeats in a row. On the other hand, they have bad record against tonight’s hosts. Norwich won just once in last seven occasions (both at home and away) and lost five of them. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is rated as in doubt.

I expect from Norwich to bounce back and they should be closer to win. And when Watford are losing (same when winning) they do it in series. But, also expect an open game with both sides scoring. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 various
Stake: 8/10
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Picks for Saturday

Just picks for tomorrow. From the next round, will be regular selections including analyzes.
Btw. with 27% yield and 28.9 units of profit, March is the best month so far this season. Hope trend will continue.
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Premier League
Wolverhampton - Everton (1:45 cet)
Bet: Wolves 0.0
Odd: 1.85 Gamebookers
Stake: 9/10
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Championship
Millwall - Leeds (4:00 cet)
Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.02 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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