Gateshead - Crawley Town

The hosts are safe in the middle, almost same distance from play-off and relegation zone with few games in hand. They won’t go anywhere from the 5th tier which means no pressure, but questionable motivation as well. They’re winless in last four games in league and two in FA Trophy Cup.

Crawley Town are alone at the top (only place that leads up) with 12 points more and 3 games less than second placed AFC Wimbledon. They’re in the furious run of seven wins and a draw out of last eight in the league. They lost a co-owner and director, Bruce Winfield, who died at Monday (club remains financially safe). This should additionally motivate the players to notice a win. Six players are injured, suspended, or in a doubt (which caused the odds have become very attractive).

No big philosophy here, I’m going to back a much better team. Expect an away win and two goals margin. 

Bet: Crawley -0.75
Odd: 2.23 Canbet
Stake: 6/10
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Middlesbrough - Watford

‘Boro are having a miserable season. From top favourites for promotion, they come to the relegation battle. They’re seven points above the line (have a game in hand) and won just twice out of last seven at home (fellow strugglers Scunny and Derby). Main problem for Tony Mowbray is lack of the attacking options. Top striker Leroy Lita is out injured, while other two strikers Kris Boyd and Lee Miller are on loan at other clubs. Scott McDonald will play alone in front.

Watford are team of good and bad streaks. In October they’ve noticed seven games without a win, after that seven wins in a row, then again winless in nine and recently made two consecutive wins with 6-0 goal difference (unbeaten in five)! They’re play off candidates and have few players in good shape, particularly sensational is Danny Graham who scored in all of last five matches.

It will be a close and very probably low scoring affair, but I can see Watford taking all three points. Draw would be fine, as well. 0-1 correct score.

Bet: Watford +0.25
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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WBA - Arsenal

West Brom look much better under Roy Hodgson, they’re undefeated in last four in league and in previous round won in derby away vs. Brum (3-1). But, the fact is they haven’t kept a clean sheet in previous 27 games. On the other hand, from the bottom-half sides only Blackpool have scored more goals (WBA 39). Key midfielder Dorrans is out, other midfielder Mulumbu is doubtful, while Vela cannot play against parent club.

Arsenal suffered two painful defeats in last 10 days (Barca and Man Utd), but they still look good in the title race. Three points less than Utd, but with a game in hand (counting on Utd’s injuries and tough game vs. Bolton today). Arsenal have good record on the road against bottom sides, but Wenger is facing a long injury list. Seven players are out, Fabregas, Djourou, Diaby, Vermaelen, Szczesny, Walcott and Song. Jens Lehmann is in the squad which makes me think they will be vulnerable more than usual. Good news for Wenger is Bendtner returns.

The Gunners are desperate for points, but absolutely the same is with WBA. I expect an open game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Southampton - Sheff Wed

The Saints are strong contenders for a direct promotion, they have 5 points less than 2^nd Hudders but also have three games in hand. Have noticed three consecutive wins, are scoring without too much effort and at the same have the best defensive record at home (conceded just 10 goals in 17 games). Midfielder Gobern is suspended, another two midfielders Schneiderlin and Do Prado will be sidelined again.

Wednesday appointed Gary Megson with intention to join a play-off race, but after miserable display vs. Posh at home (1-4) which was third home defeat in a row they could easily wake up in the relegation battle. They cannot defend at the moment, have conceded 11 goals in last four games. Two defenders, Rob Jones and Danny Batth, have been brought on loan but putting them both in starting line-up could make even more damage. Defender Beevers is out for the season, while the only good news is a return of full-back Buxton after the injury.

At St Mary's the Saints are the favourites regardless the name of the opponent, but 1.45 doesn’t look attractive for any side in League One. I think Wednesday will be able to score and see goals as a better option. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.84 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Preston - Coventry

Preston demolished Scunthorpe in the previous round (0-3 away), they’re still far from relegation line (10 points), but they’ll probably give a good try. That win stands alone, but lately North End played against the team from the top. Against Leeds and Burnley lost, but took a draw vs. Norwich, Nott Forest, QPR and Watford. Preston have never lost at Deepdale against City (6 wins of last 7) and have just one defeat in last 13 both at home and away. No injury worries for Phil Brown.

Coventry are in a better position (8 points above the line), but actually facing a free fall since they have just one win out of last 17 games (winless in last six). Manager Boothroyd paid the price for poor results, they have a caretaker Andy Thorn, played a draw at Burnley (2-2) in the midweek, but actually Coventry are the best chance that Preston have to keep their hopes alive. Some important players are sidelined, or in doubt. Striker King is suspended, defender Cranie injured, while another striker Platt and skipper Carsley will have a late fitness test.

This is the first “make or break” game for Preston, they boosted the confidence with impressive display at Scunthorpe and Coventry surely aren’t unbeatable. I expect a tough match, but believe in Phil Brown’s capabilities and predict a home win. 2-1 correct score.

Bet: Preston -0.25
Odd: 2.07 Canbet
Stake: 7/10
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Man Utd - Arsenal (18:15 CET)

Both sides will rotate players. Man Utd had a free week but will play CL at Tuesday, Arsenal played two painful games in last 7 days.

Another failure could start a free fall for Utd and I guess Ferguson will be very serious about this match. Arsenal should have passed Barca and I’m not sure how they’re mentally prepared for a hell place for them (Utd have won 8 of last 10 games vs. Arsenal at Old Trafford).

I was ready to leave this game alone, but the price on Man Utd is too good to be refused. Ferguson will certainly try to avoid a reply and to be honest, I can’t see the Gunners winning at Old Trafford. 

Bet: Man Utd -0.25
Odd: 1.86 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Burnley - Millwall

Burnley under Eddie Howe became the serious play-off candidates, they are 3 points far but have two games in a hand. Since he took the charge, the Clarets have noticed six wins, two draws and only one defeat out of nine league games, have five wins out of last six and three in a row. Strikers Thompson and Paterson are out.

Millwall made a great win over QPR in the midweek, but their shape away from the Den is far from being impressive. They’ve noticed five defeats and a draw in last six games on the road and are winless since the middle of November (‘Boro 1-0). Midfielder Rowlands is back to the squad, but important defender Purse is suspended.

Home side has the best form in Championship, away side the worst on the road. Odd above even is very good price and I have no dilemma. Home win.

Bet: Burnley -0.5
Odd: 2.06 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Leyton Orient - Oldham

Londoners have made an incredible run of results. They haven’t lost a game in the division since the New Year day (run of 12 games) and became a serious play-off candidate (I would have never predicted that watching them trashing by Charlton in August). At home, they’re unbeaten in 16 competitive matches, have seven wins of ten in the league and three in the row. Key striker Revell will have a late fitness test, midfielder Smith and defender Chorley are also in doubt.

Athletic have slipped into the middle of table and they’re now at the same distance from play-off and the relegation zone. They’re winless in last eight in league (losing five of those) and have three defeats in a row. Despite scoring twice in defeat against Wednesday, they had not scored a single goal in six games before that. Midfielder Furman and striker Reid are suffering with a virus and both are rated as in doubt.

Orient should be the big favourites here, matter of team quality, recent shape and motivation. And I like the price, had expected something around 1.60 - 1.70. Home win.

Bet: Leyton -0.5
Odd: 1.84 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Coventry - Hull

Coventry are in a big downtrend as they dropped from 5th place to 18th and could be even involved into relegation battle. They’ve noticed just one win in last 15 matches (Palace at home, 2-1), haven’t kept a clean sheet in last eight and lost last three of four at Ricoh Arena. They also have the worst record against top-half clubs, losing six of eight. Manager Aidy Boothroyd hopes his goalie Westwood will be fit, especially because reserve Ireland is also injured. Striker Marlon King is suspended, another striker Platt will face a late fitness test. Skipper Carsley and defender Turner remain sidelined.

Hull City are actually moving in the opposite direction, they’ve climbed up to 9th  position and still carry the play-off hopes. They’re the best travellers in Championship, haven’t lost in last 13 on the road, including a win in the last away game and ending Forest’s historical home record. They have won half games against bottom-half sides and scored two games in average against the strugglers. Vito Mannone is out and will be replaced by Villa’s on-loan goalie Brad Guzan. 

Great odds on visitors, they’re now raised to 2.20! I predict more misery for Coventry and away win, but dnb option will be absolutely fine. 

Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 2.20 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Preston - Leeds

North End are stuck for the bottom with 10 points below the relegation line and it seems there’s no wonder that could keep them in Championship. They’re 13 games without win in league (6D, 7L) and have won only one of last 21! They also conceded second highest number in league (62 goals in 35 games). Phil Brown has a long row in front the medic. Six players are rated as in doubt. Goalie Lonergan, def Morgan, def Gray, str Ellington, def Cort and mid Nicholson. So, goalie and three defenders in the poorest side in second tier.

Leeds are strong play-off (and promotion, in my opinion) candidates. However, they continue to play with the nerves of their fans, scoring goals for fun but conceding as well. 2-2 and 3-3 at home, then 0-3 at Swans and from 1-0 and 1-2 till 5-2 against Doncaster! They’ve brought midfielder Barry Bannan (till the end of season) from Villa and this lad could have very important role in the team. Leeds have failed to score in only four Championship games out of 35. One more reason for a good display will be first game at Elland where Leeds had 4-1 lead and eventually lost 4-6!

Goals look like an obvious and very popular bet, but it’s more my feeling that Grayson will demand tighter defence and not so open game. After almost every Leeds high scoring game this season, a low scoring one followed. The difference in quality is huge and I expect their safe win (something like 0-2), but took -0.25 line just in case. 

Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 1.78 10bet
Stake: 8/10
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Leicester - Norwich

Leicester did lose at North London against QPR, but actually were the better side and missed two sitters before conceded a late loser. They’re now big five points far from a play-off zone and will be certainly looking for all three points. Interesting fact is they haven’t failed to score at Walkers since SG Eriksson took the charge, 13 games and total of 30 goals! No injury worries, same squad is available.

Norwich have noticed only a draw against poor Preston side, mainly because their relaxed attitude (in previous at home, also drew against another poor side Doncaster). They’re in much better position than the hosts, but missed the opportunity to occupy second spot. They also have an interesting fact and it is Norwich have never made two consecutive defeats under Paul Lambert (88 games)! If we consider 1-1 against Preston as a defeat (I think it’s fair), their good performance is in front. Also, only QPR took more points on the road, they have scored in 10 of last 11 away games (in 31 of 35, both at home and away).Defender Whitbread is doubt, Edwards could make a first start and replace him.

Leicester are probably closer to win, but I think goals would be a better call. First game on Carrow Road ended 4-3, this one also smells on high scoring affair. Both to score should be the second option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Leeds - Doncaster

Leeds are holding a play-off spot, but haven’t won in last three games. They suffered 3-0 defeat at Swans, but played pretty well actually and were unlucky to stay empty handed (referee’s mistakes unlucky). They’re top scorers in Championship with 62 goals (conceded 55), while their 17 games at Elland have produced 64 goals (3.76 in average)! Johnson returns after suspension,  Connolly remains sidelined, Lloyd Sam is struggling with a virus.

After a horrible run of results, Donny’s injury list started to decrease and results have been improving. They’re undefeated in last three and are boosted with midweek away win at Derby. At that game, playmaker Stock and finisher Sharp (two goals) returned to the team. Donny’s 17 games on the road have produced 60 goals (3.53 average) and they’ve kept just one clean sheet!

Leeds are certainly the favourites here, but not sure does it worth at 1.65. On the other hand their attacking attitude and Donny’s passing style should guarantee an entertaining afternoon at Elland Road. Backed with strong statistical data, I think there shouldn’t be a room for mistake. I’m on goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.70 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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QPR - Leicester (preview)

QPR are topping the table and it seems with Neil Warnock as a manager they got what they needed for promotion. Defence line looks much better than in previous seasons and it is the best in second tier with just 20 goals conceded. They also have noticed just one home defeat of 17 games (11 wins) and they’re in the run of 10 games without a loss. Tommy Smith should start from the bench, but Taarabt and Routledge should be fit (considering odds free fall).

Since SG Eriksson took the charge, Leicester started to look much better and they became with climbing on the table. They’re 7th with just two points far from a play-off zone. However, their away shape doesn’t look so impressive. They’ve lost 10 of 17 games on the road and all five against current top 5 in Championship. Chelsea’s on-loan defender, Patrick van Aanholt, is out.

QPR are better squad, play at home and cope much better with the pressure of big games. In my opinion they should be favorites. 2-0 correct score.

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QPR - Leicester

Analyze is coming, odds are in free fall...

Bet: QPR -0.25
Odd: 1.78 188bet
Stake: 9/10
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Birmingham - WBA (12:45 GMT)

The Brummies did lift the trophy, but this game is returning to the cruel Premier reality. They’re two points above the relegation line, this is six-pointer and I’m pretty sure they won’t suffer from a Cup hangover. Despite their bad position on the table, Birmingham have lost just three of their last 29 Premier games at St Andrew's. Barry Ferguson and Craig Gardner got some injuries in the Cup final and are in doubt for today’s clash.

West Brom are going to West Midlands derby after four draws of last five games (three in the row) and five away defeats of six matches. Hodgson added some stability to a horrible defence line, but they became a less dangerous in front as well (excluding Vela, of course). They have made a record with 26 Premier games without a clean sheet (three of them with Hodgson), but Hodgson as Premier League manager won just one of his last 28 away matches. Key man in the midfield, Graham Dorrans, suffered an ankle injury in training on Friday and is a major doubt.

The host will have a sky-high confidence, great support from the stands and they’re probably better team. WBA are pretty poor travellers, they avoided defeats in last two games coming to the point in last minutes and their luck should be spent. Home win (with some limitation regarding the draw). 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Birmingham -0.25
Odd: 2.21 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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