Championship betting, Nott Forest - Cardiff

c

Instead to be contenders for play-off, Forest are under a serious relegation threat (first under the line, at the moment). They have five defeats out of last six (one draw) and haven’t score a single goal in those. (Now when I’ve noticed, they’ll probably smash one in the opening 10 minutes!) At home, three defeats in a row and every of them looks a bit embarrassing. First trashing from Leeds 0-4, then 0-1 defeats vs. Palace and Posh.

Cardiff have only one defeat of last 13 competitive games, unlucky one at home vs. ‘Boro. They’ve noticed only two away defeats of season’s 12 and are undefeated in last six, but have played too many draws lately (7 of 12 away). Oppositely from the hosts, they are serious promotion contenders (as every year though).

My impression is such high odds on visitors are based more on Forest’s reputation then on recent results and potential. I am covering a draw, but expect Cardiff to nick one for 0-1.

Bet: Cardiff 0.0
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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League Two betting, Northampton - Burton

L

The Cobblers have only one win out of ten at home (vs. bottom side - Dag&Red) and have lost eight of last ten (home and away).They have the worst defence in the league.

In the last two rounds, Burton lost away against leaders Crawley and missed to win against Dag&Red. But, before those two they had five wins out of six matches (both home and away), they’re still at fifth place and are a serious play-off contenders.

Northampton have new manager and goalie (his first signing) which force me to take some limitation, but they'll remain a very poor side. 

Bet: Burton -0.25
Odd: 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Boxing Day Betting, Bolton - Newcastle

s

The Trotters have lost nine of last ten matches at home, but in previous round they got a big confidence boost by winning Blackburn away and they’ve won seven of their last eight home matches at Boxing Day. However, they cannot shut the defence and they’ve conceded at least twice in eight out of last ten games.

The Toon are winless in last six and this should be a nice chance for them to back on the track. But, they also have a leaky defence and conceded 10 goals in last four encounters. Nine of their last twelve games have produced three goals or more goals (six games with four or more).

I am taking goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.11 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Scotland betting, Hearts - Motherwell

a

Odds don’t seem to be fair for me.

Hearts have two wins out of last eight and both came against sides from bottom three (five defeats in those eight).

Motherwell are in a terrific run with seven wins out of nine on the road (five in a row). Acceptable defeat against Celtic and draw vs. Kilmanrock.

Also, Hearts haven’t won against Motherwell in last four at home (won just once in last seven home and away).

Bet: Motherwell +0.25
Odd: 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10
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Calcio betting, Atalanta - Cesena

Sorry for late posting, will be brief.

Atalanta seem to be fine at home with no defeat so far (seven games). Their five draws in a row cause some concern, but without six points deduction they would have been as same position as Inter.

Cesena are generally poor travellers and beside five defeats out of seven, they’ve scored only two goals.

Bet: Atalanta -0.5
Odd: 1.88 (bet365)
Stake: 6/10
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League Two Betting, Shrewsbury - Macclesfield

a

I am going to back Shrewsbury to respond on an awful display and defeat away to Aldershot. They have strong home record with seven wins and two draws out of nine at home, conceded only five in those. Macclesfield have noticed six defeats of nine on the road, their goalie saved them against Gillingham and they had a midweek Cup game. 

Don’t like to back such short favorites in this league, but I am in opinion that odd on Shrewsbury should be even lower.

Bet: Shrewsbury -1
Odd: 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Bury - Brentford

Fancy the price for away side, since I’d expected something a bit closer to evens for their win. Both sides are in the decent shapes. Bury have three wins out of last four in league (bottom-half clubs and Preston, but in last round they suffered a heavy defeat at Colchester.

Brentford have won last two matches and their only defeat of last five in league came from the hands of Charlton. The Bees continue to play without skipper, midfielder Kevin O'Connor and it’s their only absentee. They have only one away defeat out of nine played games (Sheff Utd, back in August).

Expect Brentford to this one, but covering a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Brentford 0.0
Odd: 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, West Ham - Barnsley

                             

The Hammers have noticed two defeats in a row and will certainly want to bounce back immediately. I am not sure how it’s going to work since there’s a big injury crisis (Allardyce has made a list 25 (twenty five) players to look at in a bid!). Good thing for my bet is all strikers seem to be fit.

The Tykes’ last ten games produced a total amount of 41 goals, last four on the road - 20! Before last week defeat vs. Ipswich, they had a run of four consecutive wins.

I am going for goals.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.07 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Blue Square North Betting, Boston United - Corby Town

a

Boston have only one league win out of last five matches (played against some top sides though). They won at Saturday in Cup which could bring some confidence, but tired legs as well and I doubt they have that big squad for a decent rotation (Corby were free for the weekend). United will be without skipper, defender Gareth Jelleyman.

Corby are also in some downtrend with two defeats and a draw out of last three (all against top nine), but they’ve suffered just a single away defeat out of nine (four wins and draws).

BlueSq as a league sponsor has the lowest odd for United so no reason to go crazy with the stake, but still see a decent value.

Bet: Corby 0.0
Odd: 2.08 (bet365)
Stake: 6/10
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Holland betting, Vitesse - Groningen

Vitesse have won four out of six home games, while two draws and a defeat came against top-six league sides. Only home defeat suffered against Feyenord two weeks ago, but backed on the track with 0-0 draw at Twente and 4-0 home win against RKC Waalwijk.

Groningen’s away record looks opposite, haven’t lost three times in a total of seven games and positive results came only against bottom six (which Vitesse are not). The rest they lost, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per a game.

Think the price is very generous and go for a home win.

Bet: Vitesse
Odd: 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 5/10
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League Two betting, Northampton - Crewe

Northampton won only one game out of home nine. They’ve lost seven of last eight in league and conceded 15 goals in last three matches!

Crewe look a bit better with five wins (and five defeats) of ten games on the road. They also won last two (Hereford and Morecamb).

Think there’s a decent value on away side. Crewe have only one draw of 18 league games (none on the road), there’s not too much point on covering a draw and I am taking straight away win.

Bet: Crewe
Odd: 3.00 (bet365)
Stake: 4/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Newcastle

Norwich haven’t kept a single clean sheet of 14 games, they have conceded more goals than any other team outside the bottom three and only Bolton have allowed their opponents more shots on goal. Their seven home games have produced 22 goals (average 3.14)!

The Toon are also free scoring (and free conceding) side. Seven of their last nine matches in Premier produced three or more goals and they’ve conceded seven goals in last three. For this particular game, Alan Pardew will have plenty of problems with his defence line. Steven Taylor and Mike Williamson are out and Fabricio Coloccini is a serious doubt.

While I fancy Norwich for this one, the fact is both sides have leaky defences and pretty strong attacks. Goals should be only logic conclusion.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 (Interwetten)
Stake: 8/10
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League One Betting, 10 December

a

Walsall - Charlton

Walsall are fourth from the bottom , have two home wins out of ten and one win out of last 14 in league. Last week played only a draw against poor Dag&Red. They’ll miss Ryan Jarvis, striker who starts his three-match suspension.

Charlton look superior in the third tier. They’re alone on the top (7 points margin), eight wins in a row (six in league, two in Cup) and are scoring for fun (while defence looks rock solid). The fact they play on the road doesn’t mean too much as they’ve noticed eight wins out of ten.

Against Hudders Charlton showed a great domination and quality. Walsall were clueless in last few games and I doubt they can make some serious threats. Expect nice and smooth 0-2.

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 2.04 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Tranmere - MK Dons

After an impressive start, Tranmere have been slipping on the table and going where, in my opinion, they actually belong - to the bottom half of the table. Five defeats out of last six games and conceded 14 goals in those. The biggest concern is striker, target man Enoch Showunmi. He wasn’t fit at Thursday and seems in best case he’ll be on the bench.

The Dons are doing well, they’re fourth on the table, have six wins in a row (four in league, two in Cup) and scored 23 in those!

I am backing the winning horse here and odds look very appealing.

Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square Bet Premier, Darlington - Forest Green

d
Darlo are decent side, had three wins in a row than lost in Wrexham (which is not the shame). On the other hand they have some injury worries with the lack of options in attack (best striker is out injured, other is suspended). Also, few youngsters are expected to appear.
Visitors have only one defeat out of eleven on the road, they’ve noticed three wins out of last four (one draw) and in last two away games smashed Braintree and Southport - scoring eight in those two.

It’s a pity I missed the better price yesterday, but it still represents a good value.

a

Bet: Forest Green 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Betsson)
Stake: 7/10
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Premier League and Championship betting, 03.12

a
Aston Villa - Man Utd

Villa have very good home record (3W, 2D, 1L), but they actually haven’t faced any of the top sides so far. Their wins came against bottom two Blackburn - Wigan and Norwich, drew vs. Wolves and the Toon and lost against West Brom. They’ve noticed only one point of last five matches and have terrible record against Utd, as they won only once of their last 31 league meetings (21W, 9D, 1L).

Man Utd had a poor week, but think I can find few excuses. Against Valencia, back four was mixed which resulted with two goals in the back of the net. Toon were saving their heads and somehow took a point, while elimination from Cup with youngsters was only a slap that needs a reaction and could only be helpful for this bet. Villa Park is happy place to go for Ferguson, as they won more points in Premier only at Goodison.

Expect much improved performance from United and easier win than expected.

a

Bet: Man Utd -0.75
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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s

Bristol City - Middlesbrough

The Robins are at poor 20th position, but since Derek McInnes took the charge they have been playing like born again. Undefeated in six in league (4W, 2D) with few really impressive displays. They resisted at West Ham, won at the Den against Millwall and defeated league leaders S’ton in a game where the Saints were on back foot for entire game. They regained self confidence and with the potential they obviously posses, I expect more good games and climbing on the table.

‘Boro made a good start of the season, but their form recently has been going in the opposite direction than the Robins’. They’re winless in last three matches and in last five on the road, defeated only poor old Donny.

I expect City to win this one and to continue a great run, but simply (regardless how much I’ve been trying) cannot exclude a possibility of a draw.

a

Bet: B.City 0.0
Odd: 1.98 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10
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Puntersmate.net - The Best Betting Forum Around

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As someone who likes to hear different opinions and to see other betting tips, I always look around for betting forums as places that gather more betting enthusiast. With no exaggeration, this is the best place I’ve found! No big as Punters Lounge or Betting Advice, but small group of top bettors. Quite frankly, was surprised it wasn’t a closed forum or paid service. PuntersMate is the fastest growing sports betting forum on the Internet!

Besides football, there’s regular covering of horse racing, rugby, snooker, tennis, darts and all American sports betting. Two regular monthly competitions with cash prizes (football and horse racing) and Punters Academy, special forum section dedicated to the rookies and those whose betting career is stalled (free betting advice and info, including staking plans, betting A-Zs and beginners’ guides for spread betting, the exchanges and Asian Handicap football bets).

Others say:

“The quality of tipping on puntersmate is to be applauded”

“Welcome to the oasis amongst the desert of Punting Forums”

“Some of the best punters on the web”

After all, it’s free!

So, why don’t you make a quick look and decide if you like to join some of the best bettors on the net.

PuntersMate

Wish you good betting luck and thanks for visiting my corner,

Dule

Blue Square Bet Premier, Barrow - Alfreton Town

q

Barrow have pretty strong home record with six wins (two draws and two defeats) out of ten home games. At home turf, they’ve already beaten top two sides, Fleetwood Town (4-0) and Wrexham (3-1). It is only Wrexham’s defeat out of their 11 on the road. Barrow are winless in last three in league, but there was some improvement in previous game at Telford where the Bluebirds played pretty well, but thankfully to home goalie (named as man of the match) stayed empty handed.

Alfreton have the second worst record on the road, as they took only four points from their ten trips (eight defeats, draw and one win). This is long journey for them and as I understood they’ll be without three players in defence line and a winger.

I think there’s some decent value on home side and since four of their six home wins came with two or more goals margin, I go even further and am taking -0.75.

Bet: Barrow -0.75
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One Betting, Rochdale - Brentford

z

Rochdale defeated Preston in previous round which however was their first win after six in league and two in Cup. At home they’ve won only two games out of nine, against bottom-half sides Wycombe and Scunny.

Brentford oppositely lost in previous round, against side from the top - Charlton at home. But, they seem to enjoy their travelling as they haven’t lost in ten on the road (eight in league and two in Cup). In last two trips, stayed undefeated against promotion contenders Sheff Wed and Notts County, while also defeated Charlton in Cup 3-0.

Brentford definitely shouldn’t be as high as 2.69, but considering decent amount of draws on both sides 0.0 handicap should be a reasonable limitation.

Bet: Brentford
Odd: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Blue Square Bet Premier, Bath City - Mansfield Town

a

Think it’s more than generous price here. City are stuck to the bottom with a single win out of 20 matches (have lost seven out of 10 at home). They played at Wednesday a Cup replay against Dag&Red and lost after extra time. Game had a great importance for them, they played with the best team and I doubt they have that big squad to rotate players for game today. Also, they’ve been storming on assistant referee in that game who made a crucial mistake and (allegedly) eliminated City from the Cup. So, team morale couldn’t be sky high (even read somewhere that home fans will trade the tickets with the visitors).

Mansfield, although playing below their pre-season expectations, haven’t been noticing so bad results lately. On the road, they’re undefeated in eight outings (4 wins, 4 draws). No big missings and both clubs have signed some players on loan (Bath two, Mansfield three).

In my numbers, Mansfield shouldn’t be above evens and as I mentioned price is worth of a shout. Away win.

Bet: Mansfield
Odd: 2.29 (Canbet)
Stake: 6/10
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Premier League Betting, Man Utd - Newcastle

e

No need to talk too much about Man Utd’s home record. This season they have five wins out of six, in previous one 18 wins and only one draw. For the notice is fact the most of their home wins came after the lead at the ht (lost the exact number, but let’s say 70%). After conceding six in city derby, in next five matches they didn’t concede a single goal. Till Benfica, but with mixed defence. Only Anderson is out (till February). United haven’t lost against the Toon in last 18 matches (both home and away), winning 14 of them!

Newcastle are noticing a surprising (shocking if you like) start of the campaign. Their first defeat came in last round against Man City (where they maybe deserved more than 1-3 defeat) and currently occupy CL spot! However, all their rivals on the road were bottom-half sides.

I don’t really expect Newcastle will stay at the top too long and fancy United to win this one with the lead at the half time. Odds are decent.

Bet: Man Utd/Man Utd (ht/ft)
Odd: 2.00 (PaddyPower, Bwin)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, WBA - Tottenham

f

West Brom haven’t been bad lately, four wins, four draws and two defeats out of last ten. But on the other hand, they scored only nine goals in those ten and lost every match against top sides (Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool). Situation about Long and Odemwingie still isn’t clear, while second mentioned also started some public arguing with Hodgson. 

Spurs are flying high at the moment, they’ve noticed nine wins and a draw out of last ten and have scored two or more goals in each of last nine matches (averaging 17 shots per game this season)! Rafael van der Vaart is doubt for Redknapp who said the Dutch is out of contention (which forces me to believe he’ll start).

Anyway, I consider the worst scenario for my bet where WBA’s duo will play and Van der Vaart will not, but still find evens (or nearly below it) for away win as very appealing.

Bet: Tottenham
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 7/10
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League Two betting, Port Vale - Torquay

a

Port Vale have three straight league defeats and adding two Cup games on that, they scored just once in last five matches. Also they won’t have fresh legs, as they played (and lost) mid week Cup game away at Grimsby.

Torquay are in a great run with four straight league wins (five, including Cup). Opponents in those weren’t sides from the top, but my impression is they’re simply too high and worth a punt.

Bet: Torquay 0.0
Odd: 2.18 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Birmingham - Peterborough

Brum lost at Reading and ended their run of nine unbeaten games. However, they should be strong promotion contenders (have three games in hand). At home are undefeated (4W, 2D) and have conceded only once. Big thing for them is no Europa League game on the sight and could be focused only on this tier.

The Posh have been scoring and conceding for fun, lately. Their defence is the weakest in Championship (29 conceded goals in 16 games), and they’re the only club in the division without a clean sheet. Some important players are returning to the squad, but I think Posh won’t be able to cope with Brum’s rock solid defence and to score as much as they concede.

Expect one nice and smooth home win.

Bet: Birmingham -0.75
Odd: 2.02 (Bet365)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Brentford - Charlton

z

Brentford thrashed Bournemouth in Cup (defeated Basingstoke Town after that too), but in league have only one win of last seven at home. They have won more points playing on the road. Today, they’ll be without captain Kevin O'Connor.

Charlton are topping the table and have been scoring for fun. They’re in the run of four straight wins and have scored 20 goals in those! Seven away wins out of nine games make them obvious favorites here.

Think it won’t be easy as numbers suggest (my numbers as well). I can see a low scoring affair (with 0-0 ht) with Charlton to nick it in 2nd half. I am taking handicap and some draw covering.

Bet: Charlton -0.25
Odd: 1.94 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Arsenal

a

Sort of obvious pick. Norwich have conceded in each of their home games (no clean sheet in any of 12 games this season), they play attacking football and three of their last four games produced four or more goals. Remind me on Blackpool last year.

Arsenal’s last seven matches in league were overs, while their five on the road produced 28 goals! Differently from the start of the season, they look pretty well and should be big favorites today. Additionally, Wenger made a deal with Dutch coach Van Persie to be rested against Germany and he’s fully fit. Arsenal have scored 13 goals in their last three meetings with Norwich.

Goals for me.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.21 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Spain Segunda betting, 13 November

s

Villarreal B - Almeria

Villarreal B took 11 points of twelve opening games and have same points as first below the line - Girona. They’re in the run of four straight defeats (all four vs. top-seven sides) and have noticed only one win at home out of six. Interesting thing is they score and concede a lot when playing at home,  13-15 which are the biggest numbers in both columns.

Almeria look like strong promotion contender, currently second (two teams will directly qualify to Primera), three wins in a row and have four wins on the road (with one draw and one defeat). Oppositely from the hosts, their away games are low scoring affairs. Just one went in over and they’ve conceded a total of just three goals. Today’s game should be won by their defence.

Two teams in opposite trends with opposite ambitions. At this price, definitely worth of a shot.

Bet: Almeria
Odd: 2.38 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 4/10
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Blue Square North betting, 12 Nov

s

Boston United - Hyde United

Blue Square North looks like two horses race, between Hyde and Stalybridge. Hyde had some drop in form with four games without a win, but overcame it with three wins in a row without conceding (scored eight in those). They’re fine on the road with six wins out of nine (a draw and two defeats).

I rate Boston as average league side. They’re in a decent run at home taking ten points of last four games, but so far in the season they haven’t hosted any of the top-six sides.   

2.30 looks like a generous price for away win.

Bet: Hyde
Odd: 2.30 (Betsson)
Stake: 4/10
p 

Nuneaton Town - Workington

Nuneaton are pushing for the promotion spot, they won five home games out of last seven and three of those five ended with two or more goals margin. They’ve conceded only 14 goals in the opening 15 games which is second best in the league.

Workington have noticed six defeats of eight away games (scored a total of four goals!) and four of those six were with more than one goal margin. They also have lost four of last five matches against Town (both home and away).

Bet: Nuneaton -1ah
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 4/10
p

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Switzerland betting, 6 Oct

h

Grasshopper- Sion

Little trip to Switzerland.

Grasshopper have four defeats of six home games and all came in last four matches (scored only once in those). They also conceded eight in last two league games (scored two).

Sion are in the opposite trend as they’ve noticed five wins out of last seven in the league. Two defeats came against top side Basel (0-1 at home) and 2nd placed Luzern (0-2 away). The rest five, they won without conceding. Sion also won six of last seven matches against Grasshopper (both, home and away).

Enough to make this odd very appealing.

Bet: Sion
Odd: 2.30 (Expekt)
Stake: 4/10
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League One and Two, 5 Nov

a

Charlton - Preston

Charlton are topping the table, they have three wins in a row (last two on the road) with goal difference in those 10-1. No injury or suspension worries.

Preston are in a shocking run with five defeats out of last six and conceded 16 in those! They have had plenty of problems with defending entire season, but downtrend started when they lost Neil Mellor and Iain Hume and stopped scoring. For this game they’ll also be without another forward Jamie Proctor and goalie Iain Turner.

At the first sight I didn’t see any value here, but with including Preston’s injured players I got 1.61 for Charlton. At asian market it’s even better (as usual).

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 1.80 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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a

Plymouth - Morecambe

Situation at Plymouth looks better recently, since they’re out of administration and Carl Fletcher has become a permanent manager. However, they’re stuck to the bottom with 12 defeats out of 14 matches and have been playing with plenty of youngsters (fielded seven U 21 players against Cheltenham last week). Besides that, their two defenders (Griffiths and Berry) are out, while teenage striker Matt Lecointe and goalie Jake Cole are in serious doubt to be fit.

Morecambe are third and undefeated on the road with five wins and three draws out of eight. They also have some injury worries with skipper Will Haining, forward Jason Price and defender Laurence Wilson all facing a late fitness test.

I think the market is overreacting on recent improvements at Plymouth and see this price as very generous.

Bet: Morecambe -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (188bet)
Stake: 6/10
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League One betting, Exeter - Carlisle

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The Grecians are in the big uptrend, since they’ve collected seven of possible nine points in last three rounds. And while their wins over Rochdale and Walsall were no surprise, then a point and four scored goals at Bramall Lane surely were shocking (for me, at least). They have kept only one clean sheet of last 14 competitive matches, last four went in over and three of those four were with four goals or more. After mentioned run, their confidence is certainly sky high.

Carlisle are also free scoring/conceding side, only two times haven’t conceded (Bury and Yeovil) and their last five matches produced three or more goals (four of those were over 3.5). And they’re also in a good shape with one defeat out of last seven (away to Charlton, 0-4).

Both sides should be confident ahead the game. They score and concede a lot and I think it won’t be kind of a game where opposition could cancel each other. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.94 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League betting, Blackburn - Chelsea

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Blackburn are third from the bottom and I can imagine them in Championship next year, but they have a goal threat in every game. They still haven’t kept a clean sheet, but failed to score only two times at home (Everton - missed two penalties and Man City). They have played eight competitive games at home (six league - two Cup), and seven of those went in over (five with four goals or more). 

Chelsea have plenty of problems in the defence line. There could be few reasons like adjusting to still new manager, too attacking set up and Cech far from being impressive. They have kept only one clean sheet of opening ten games, in the first round at Stoke. Main problem at Ewood Park should be defending set-pieces and keeping eye on Samba.

Cech looks very bad, lately. I found that he has the worst saves-to-shots percentage (46%) in the league. And when goalie is insecure, whole defence becomes shaky. My point is, Chelsea will need at least two goals for a win which could make a high scoring affair.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.01 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 9/10
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Championship betting 1 Nov

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Crystal Palace - Portsmouth

Palace are flying really high (they remind me on Newcastle in Premier) and are at shocking 3^rd place. They’re also undefeated in six league matches (four wins, two draws) and haven’t conceded in last four.

Pompey have a miserable record on the road with just two points of seven away games (including previous season, eleven games without a win) and have noticed five defeats in a row. They got smashed vs. Derby at Saturday, conceding three goals for a half of hour and despite Sean O'Driscoll is already seen as a new manager, I don’t expect any positive impact on the squad (yet).

It’s a very good price on Palace (everything above evens is a very good price, in my opinion), but some covering of a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Crystal Palace -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

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Watford - Brighton

The Hornets defeated Peterborough at Sunday and ended a run of four straight defeats (all four against top-half sides though). However it was fifth win in 18 competitive games at home and they have the 2^nd worst defence in Championship.

Brighton are in a bad run of results, but watching more closely I had an impression they haven’t been “that” bad. Three draws and one defeat of last four in league. Goalless draw at home vs. Hull (Hull with their strong away record), then point at the Den against Millwall. A minimal home defeat against West Ham in a game that could have gone in both directions and finally a hard fought point away at Brum. They’ve been defending very well and been dangerous in front. I think it will be working nice at Vicarage Road and find this price very generous.

Bet: Brighton 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Value betting, France 31 Oct

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Nantes - Racing Lens

Another interesting game, here. Nantes are generally very good hosts with three wins out of last four at home. Last week they suffered an away defeat at Boulogne and it was their first in last seven league matches. Visitors are still adjusting on the life in the second tier, currently are third from the bottom and without a win in last five in league (haven’t scored in four of those five). Last week Cup defeat vs. Olympique Marseille could have only brought more depression to the club. Nantes also have won three of last four vs. Lens at home (without conceding in any of those four). I go for a home win.

Bet: Nantes
Odd: 2.29 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Value betting, Poland 31 Oct

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Ruch Chorzow - Polonia Warszawa

Massive value, here! Ruch have noticed four home wins of six matches and three of last four (one defeat, against top side Polonia). On the other hand, Polonia took only a point from their four on the road. They’re without a win in last four in league and in previous round took only a point from visiting the bottom side Cracovia (Cracovia’s first point of six home games).

Now I know Polonia is bigger name of Polish football and maybe it’s expected they’ll improve and start climbing on the table (that's what I don’t know), but considering numbers it’s a big value on home win.

Bet: Ruch
Odd: 2.42 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10

Probably one more to follow...
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Premier League betting, Norwich City - Blackburn Rovers

                             

Norwich have been playing very well, recently. They’ve lost just once in last five (Old Trafford 0-2) and at home have just one defeat of last 16 encounters (including Championship). However, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their all 10 league and cup matches this season and have conceded in 13 of the last 14 home games.

Blackburn are stuck to the bottom, only one win of nine in a league (Arsenal 4-3!). Some moral boost is League Cup win over Newcastle in midweek, but on the other hand they played 120 mins with full strength (Norwich will have fresh legs). They also haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 12 games this season (nine went in over) and did it just once in 23 on the road!

I am pretty sure Norwich won’t be just sitting back, trying to win in a tactical battle (if they didn’t at Anfield Road and Old Trafford, why they should at home against Blackburn?). On the other hand, Blackburn gained some confidence and probably have decent expectations from this game. I am going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.95 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Sheff Utd - Exeter

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The Blades are ending a tough schedule, in last five they played Charlton, Sheff Wed, Preston and MK Dons. They’re undefeated in four (two wins, two draws) and after a midweek win over the Dons, they’ve climbed on fourth place. I think they have more potential then they have been showing.

Exeter made their first away win in midweek (Walsall 2-1), but till then hadn’t even scored and noticed five defeats of seven (goal diff 2-11). Additionally, four of those five were with two or three goals margin (2-0 and 3-0).

Usually don’t like to be involved in something that could become a “public bet”, but United should be simply too much for the visitors.

Bet: Sheff Utd -1ah
Odd: 2.02 (Canbet)
Stake: 9/10
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Championship betting, Barnsley - Bristol City

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This seems to be a six-pointer. Barnsley are undefeated in four at home, two consecutive wins. That two and third league win came against fellow strugglers - bottom half sides (Millwall, Coventry, Burnley). 

The Robins have been noticing the worst start in league since 1933. Only one league win of starting 13 games (and that one came vs. Leicester away!). They have five straight defeats (and seven of eight). Got new manager, but it didn’t help in previous round as they looked helpless against the Brum at home.

There’s some chance of a draw (and -0.25 should be better choice than clear win), but I think it’s very unlikely that City will win this one.

Bet: Barnsley -0.25
Odd: 1.88 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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