Saturday's results and statistic update

The Robins scored two sensational goals (considering BBC), Robert Green was a man of the match at Emirates and Exeter suffered a first home defeat conceding four! I checked my archive, I wasn't worse ever and this is officially the worst month in my betting career! Worse even than December 2009.! Sorry to all.

New pick tomorrow.



Exeter - Brentford 2-4 LOSS
Arsenal - West Ham 1-0 LOSS
Middlesbrough - Bristol City 1-2 LOSS


Statistic:

October
Profit: -48.04 units Yield: -35.59%

Season
Profit: -27.86 units Yield: -7.60%

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Middlesbrough – Bristol City

‘Boro, as the pre-season, public (bookies as well) top favorite for winning Championship lie at embarrassing 22nd place with just one point more than bottom side (today’s opponent). Fans got what they wanted as Gordon Strachan faced the exit door and his place took the clubs legend and ex skipper Tony Mowbray (also fans’ wish). So they still possess great potential and with new manager syndrome and big support from the crowds, ‘Boro should start collecting points and climbing on the table. Also, Mowbray probably couldn’t wish a better opponent for the start of his era at Riverside. Only doubtful is Julio Arca. Defender Justin Hoyte is still sidelined, while midfielder Thompson has recovered from an injury. ‘Boro lost just twice in last 30 home encounters against City, winning 22.

The Robins are almost in the similar position as Middlesbrough (except they were tipped for play-off, not direct promotion). They’re on the bottom, hardly showing any sign of possible improvements. They made 2 decent results in last two rounds however (both at home), defeating Reading 1-0 and holding on a draw QPR 1-1. But, away record looks terrible as they won just once of six (Scunthorpe 2-0) and conceded 3 times in both of last two. Defense line is far from being tough that characterized the team in previous seasons, while David James is just a shadow from him in past few years. Also, his statement that he was drunk when he accepted to come in Bristol surely didn’t improve the dressing room atmosphere. Midfielders, Cole Skuse and Jamal Campbell-Ryce, are facing a late fitness test while defender Christian Ribeiro is definitely out.

I expect a very positive reaction on the Mowbray’s appointment, from the players and from the fans as well. Squad has great potential and I expect them to start showing it. City won’t relegate, soon will move away from the bottom but I don’t give them too much chances today. They’re simply at the wrong place in the wrong time. 2-0 correct score.

Bet: Middlesbrough -0.75
Odd: 2.08 188bet
Stake: 7/10

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Arsenal – West Ham

Arsenal look really great at the moment. And although this is very popular bet today, I’ll be involved in their game third time in a row. They demolished the Toon in Cup game during the midweek (4-0 away), at the same time resting some key players. Big  boost for Wenger is Fabregas, Walcott and Bendtner are fit and all 3 played at Newcastle (Walcott and Bendtner scored three times). It’s a big squad now and Wenger has no problem to name 11. They also score for fun lately. In 4 home games scored 14 goals (conceded 5) and in 2 CL games scored 11 goals! However in last two games at Emirates, they didn’t look impressive at all. First were shocked by WBA (2-3), then defeated Brum 2-1 but game was below their standards. So, I expect they’ll be very serious today. Arsenal are unbeaten in last 7 games against West Ham, while Man City is the only side that kept a clean sheet at Emirates in 2010..

After  9 rounds, West Ham are stuck to the bottom with just 6 points collected. They’re the side from whom I always expected to turn the corner and start moving away from a dangerous zone. Last season they made a decent spending on a transfer market, but unfortunately most of the signings were just money wasting (can’t not to think on Diamanti and transfer of 6 mill.). In this season nothing has changed and Hammers are living another bleak season in Premier. Also, at Tuesday they played 120 minutes against Stoke (won 3-1 after ET) with Grant naming very strong side. They’re tired and last thing they need is top side on the road that plays fast and attacking football. Next, Grant will miss his skipper Matthew Upson in the center of defense and striker Frederic Piquionne. Statistic also looks pessimistic as West Ham have managed just one clean sheet in 9 games, scored only 7 (lowest in Premier) and have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 games against Arsenal.

Arsenal look like a mean machine at the moment. They’ll face, I think it’s fair to say weak, slow and tired side without a captain and major threat in the attack. Despite it’s a London derby, anything except a high scoring home win would be sensation in my opinion. I expect a very long day for the Hammers and 3-0, 4-0 scoreline.

Bet: Arsenal -2.0
Odd: 2.00 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Exeter – Brentford

The Grecians are 10th in League One, but just one point far from play-off zone and if they manage to follow their home results on away games, they will be serious promotion contenders. At their St. James Park they noticed last defeat at February and this season Exeter have 3 wins and 3 draws. All wins came against the teams from the top side of the table: Charlton, Rochdale and Carlisle with Cup progress over the second tier outfit Ipswich.  They come into this game stronger for striker Jamie Cureton who has recovered from an injury. His fellow striker Nardiello however, stays sidelined.

Brentford are, actually, in a very good run of results. Just one defeat in last six competitive games, including home wins against top sides Charlton and Peterborough and away win at Tranmere. But league games are currently in the shadow of Cup competition where the Bees had their minutes of glory. They passed four rounds (ended in fifth at Birmingham), eliminating clubs from leagues above like Hull and Premier side Everton. And Cup hangover syndrome will be their biggest obstacle at Exeter. Their show and 120 minutes at Brum during the midweek (and lost on penalties) will certainly affect their game. Last time, after Everton, they’ve noticed two defeats in the next two games. Also their away record doesn’t look impressive at all, as they have one win of six games. No injury worries for boss Andy Scott.

Exeter are very good home side and potential play-off contender. Brentford will have some problems to recover and return into the third tier reality. Odds are based on their Cup performances. Which is good. I expect a tough game, but home win at the end. 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Exeter -0.25
Odd: 2.10 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Wednesday's result and statistic update

Hope this is the start of new good run...

Newcastle - Arsenal 0-4 WON 

Statistic:

October
Profit: -25.04 units Yield: -22.36%

Season
Profit: -4.86 units Yield: -1.41%

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Newcastle – Arsenal

After the great start in Premier, the Toon started to slowing down. In the last 3 home games, they noticed just one point against the sides from the bottom side of the table (Blackpool, Stoke and Wigan) and in all of those 3 conceded twice. In the previous round, they defeated Chelsea at Stamford (reserve squad though) in the game where Chris Hughton made 10 changes in the team. Something like that, he already announced. Newcastle tonight will be mix of fringe players and youngsters. They also have a big derby clash on the corner, home against Sunderland and that’s another reason for first teamers not to be risked. The Toon have only one win against Arsenal in last 19 competitive games and haven’t won in last 7 Cup games (since 1952)!

The Gunners are travelling to the north in a great mood. They demolished City at weekend and boosted their self confidence. Also, some important players (Fabregas, Walcott,Bendtner, Denilson) have been recovered from the injuries. In the previous round in city derby, they eliminated Spurs away, in the game where Wenger rotated players (as usual), but because the number of players in rotation (and their quality) that squad is always more than respectable. Arsenal have good tradition in this competition, but probably more important reason is Wenger’s desire to win a silverware (or better to say, pressure on him to win it). And in situation where Spurs, Chelsea and Man City already finished their appearance in Cup, Arsenal are favorites to win it (beside Man Utd, of course).

This surely won’t be a walk at the St James Park for the Wenger’s kids. Newcastle beat Chelsea away with the same team that probably will be tonight. They gained a huge amount of self confidence and will put their best in this game. But, on the other side will be much more serious eleven than at Stamford. Arsenal are in big uptrend, want a trophy and this should be just one station on the road to Wembley. Beside away win, I expect some counter attack that should finish the job before the end of 90 minutes.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 2.13 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend results and statistic update

Like a nightmare.With one draw and three loses,this is the worst weekend that I remember. In fact, can't remember worse streak of results. And Zvezda lost the derby against Partizan.

Chelsea - Wolves 2-0 DRAW
Carlisle - Charlton 3-4 LOSS
Plymouth - Huddersfield 2-1 LOSS
Man City - Arsenal 0-3 LOSS

Statistic:

October
Profit: -34.08 units Yield: -32.77%

Season
Profit: -13.9 units Yield: -4.14%

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Manchester City – Arsenal

Citizens are having a good start of the campaign, 17 points from 8 games and lie currently at the 2^nd place. I still believe they have no serious chance for a title, but as far as they believe in it they’ll be giving their best. And the best from such paid players could be really terrific. They don’t lack in confidence as Chelsea have already be beaten at home soil. Few injury worries for Mancini, but considering quality of full squad they could be characterized as minor. Kolo Toure will face a late fitness test and Kolarov is still out. Mario Balotelli is finally fit and will have a place on the bench.

The Gunners are playing another season that looks like one before. Wenger’s kids are great talents, Cesc is one of the best World’s players, Arshavin one of the most dangerous, they all have a great pace… But beside more experience, they really need more strength. Physically, they’re far below the top Premier sides which cause plenty of problems in the midfield tackles and in aerial challenges. And that again, with the lack of counter attack opportunities, brings defeats in the big games. Also, Wenger has some serious problems with injuries in the defense line. Almunia is long term absent and Fabianski is all except safe goalie that gives security to four players in front of him. Then, center backs, Koscielny and Vermaelen are injured (Sagna is back though). So, not so impressive defense will have to cope with two top shape “beasts”, Tevez and Adebayor. Beside mentioned, midfielder Jack Wilshere is suspended. Arsenal have won one of their last eight Premier League away games and have not kept a clean sheet in their last 15 league and cup away games.

I’m well surprised with the odds here. In my opinion, bookmakers have exaggerated Arsenal’s Champions League performances. This is something else, trip to Manchester is probably the hardest they’ll have this season. Chelsea made a five points margin yesterday and Mancini wouldn’t be satisfied with a point here. Home win.

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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League One - two picks

I have no time today to write analyzes, but picks are analyzed as always. Good luck!

Carlisle – Charlton, 

Bet: Carlisle -0.25 

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

Stake: 7/10

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Plymouth – Huddersfield, 

Bet: Huddersfield 0.0 

Odd: 1.73  bet365

Stake: 8/10

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Chelsea – Wolverhampton

Nothing much to say about Chelsea. They look like a mean machine, especially at home. All four wins with 14 goals scored and not a single conceded (691 minutes in total). They also have won 14 and lost one of their last 15 Premier League matches at Stamford, 8 wins in a row. Chelsea have big squad for rotation and European trips (played CL game at Moscow) don’t make any worries for Ancelotti. After a virus Drogba should be fit, while Lampard is still out.

Wolves look like they suffer from the second season syndrome. They’ve noticed just one win, at the opening day (at home, against Stoke 2-1). Three consecutive defeats on the road, Fulham, Spurs and Wigan. Mick McCarthy has a habit, sometimes to rest his best players against top sides. Now, he’ll be forced to give a chance to some youngsters and fringe players. Midfielder Guedioura is out with a broken leg, another midfielder Stephen Hunt and defender Jody Craddock are also injured. Mancienne is ineligible to face his parent club and skipper Henry is suspended. Five players. For this game, 19 years old David Davise has been recalled from his loan at Walsall!

Ancelotti doesn’t calculate during the game and his players look like they’re really enjoying in the game and scoring goals. Also Chelsea haven’t had much problems with defensive sides (usually at home lose the points against top league teams), as they won nine competitive games this season and in all of those had a lead at the half time. Wolves, with all missing players, don’t look like a team that can stop them.

Bet: Chelsea -2
Odd: 1.69 10Bet
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday's result and statistic update

Arsenal - Shakhtar 5-1  WON

Statistic:

October
Profit: -11.08 units Yield: -15.18%

Season
Profit: +9.1 units Yield: +2.99%

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Arsenal - Shakhtar Donetsk

Arsenal have six points from first two games and scored nine in those. First destroyed Braga at Emirates (6-0), then easy past Belgrade (3-1) and with tonight’s win the Gunners would practically pass the group. When they play Champions League at Emirates, home wins are common thing. Since the loss against Inter Milano seven years ago, Arsenal have noticed 17 wins with 4 draws and 12 of those 17 wins were with 2 or more goals margin. Wenger has plenty of problems in the back line. Koscielny, Sagna and Vermaelen are out (adding on that Fabianski who is in). In past, problems with defensive line meant Arsenal will be even more attacking. But, also some good news from medical service. Fabregas, Bendtner and Theo Walcott are all fit. Fabregas will probably take some part in the game as a preparation for City, while rest two should start the game.

Shakhtar also come in this game with six points. However, they had much more problems in those two then Arsenal. At first game at home, they had lots of problems to break Partizan’s defense (won 1-0). 3-0 at Braga suggests dominating win, but true is home side had possession and few great chances that missed. Then came counter attack, home attempts to save the game, another counter and 0-3 at the end. However, beside domination in Ukraine (first place, with 5 points margin and goal difference 25-5 after 13 rounds), they play very well in Europe (lost away just once since 2008, but were playing in Europa League). They need home win against Braga for second place and tonight won’t have any pressure. However, it’s not like I believe in Lucescu’s announcing they’ll attack Arsenal trying to use their defensive problems. It would be a suicide, more likely. However, only injury concern is very important players, Douglas Costa, and we’ll see is Lucescu ready to risk with him (I think he’s not).

I don’t think Wenger has too much space for calculation here (beside leaving Fabregas on the bench). It’s big difference being first, or second. In the rest three games, they have to travel twice (one trip is in Ukraine), failure today would cut the space for Wenger to play with rotating squad. On the other hand, win tonight with the win in last round against Partizan at home would bring the top. And of course, considering quality difference, Arsenal are way above. Odds are higher than I expected. Home win.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 1.91 Stan James
Stake: 8/10

Probably one pick from Championship, later today.

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Van der Sar and statistic update

At the same minute Van der Sar decided to make a joke and Robert Koren made a first attempt on goal for Hull (from 30 yards). Unfortunately both situations ended with goals and something that should have been entertaining Saturday and money collecting turned into a serious disaster. Only light in the dark was Wednesday that played a game just as I expected and made a job done. I don't celebrate too much when win and don't moan when lose, but disturbing thing is entire list of results looks really shocking and it lasts for the couple weeks. However, better days are coming. Thanks for visiting and sorry for a bad run.


Manchester United - WBA  2-2  LOSS
Leicester - Hull  1-1  LOSS
Yeovil - Sheffield Wednesday  0-2 WON

Statistic:

October
Profit: -18.36 units Yield: -28.25%

Season
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +0.61%

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Yeovil - Sheffield Wednesday

Yeovil started the season in usual manner that should predict them a bottom side of the table. They have gained 14 points in the opening seven rounds, four above the relegation line. They look fine in past few weeks, as they stopped S’ton at home (1-1) and in previous two rounds (both on the road) noticed two 1-0 wins. But, it’s fair to say one came against fellow strugglers Walsall (second, over Rochdale was a real surprise though) and same applies for both home wins (Tranmere and Leyton). Against top sides, they usually have lots of problems. They will be without two players, midfielder JP Kalala and defender Stam.

Wednesday, in my opinion, have the best squad in the third tier. Almost the same players from previous season with few extra signings should have been on the top already. However, some happenings outside the pitch and Alan Irvin’s defensive approach to the games (lots of criticism for that) caused a four defeats in a row (September). Then draw vs. Oldham and two consecutive wins, all three games without conceding. Especially important was 2-0 victory at Notts County. They’re in uptrend, coming away from crisis, players regain self-confidence and I expect a run of good results from them. Midfielder Giles Coke is in doubt, as well as excellent winger Jermaine Johnson.

Odds look very interesting here. Bookies made the offer with the influence of latest Yeovil’s results and bad Wednesday’s display against Orient. I really can’t see home side winning this one and expect Wednesday to keep it tight and to bag on or two goals.

Bet: Sheff Wed 0.0
Odd: 1.83 Victor Chandler
Stake: 8/10

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Leicester - Hull

The Foxes occupy shameful 22nd place (third from the bottom) and after a run of embarrassing results, Paolo Sousa got fired. The thing is, the team is almost the same from previous season (finished 5^th and lost after play-off penalties against Cardiff), but team was paying prices to Sousa’s attempts to implement his defensive philosophy of football that was working perfectly at his time at Swansea. Also, some of his management decisions didn’t help, like to leave top goal scorer and club’s mascot, Matty Fryatt, on the bench. It’s not a new boss syndrome, in the first game without Sousa players showed a new face and played like without the weight on the shoulders (Scunthorpe at home 3-1). I’m not a keen of Sven-Goran Eriksson’s admirer, but his arriving just confirms club’s ambition that his owner is repeating these days – Premier League. Erikson has already signed two very good players, extra talented Kyle Naughton from Spurs (should even start the game) and Villa’s defender Curtis Davies. Striker Dany N`Guessan is only missing.

Hull are facing a rough times in the second tier. And while at home things don’t look so bad (haven’t conceded a goal in all five games, scored just two tough), their record on the road again looks shameful. In previous season in Premier they finished without a win (6 draws and 12 scored goals in 19 games) and not too much have been changed. One win (very lucky one at Norwich) and four defeats with goal difference 3-13! I predicted at the start that lot will depend from Jimmy Bullard (key of their key players). He has an injury and will face a late fitness test for today’s game, but even when he was fit didn’t look too much interested for the game. Their ambition is return to Premiership, but that doesn’t sound likely for the near future.

Leicester will start climbing on the table (in fact, started already), they possess more than decent amount of quality and will finish somewhere in top eight – I’d say. Sousa’s era has been finished and players are eager to show their full potential. Opponent is very good for that purpose. Home win.

Bet: Leicester -0.5
Odd: 1.90 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
 
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Manchester United - WBA

After just 7 rounds, United are already in position to chase rivals for the top and gap looks pretty decent (5 points from Chelsea). Current, third position is a result of away games where Devils all four finished with a draw. Second reason is shocking performances from Wayne Rooney who thankfully to happenings outside the pitch can’t back on the track. However, this is a nice opportunity for him to return some self confidence and score one-two times. United won 11 and drew 1 of last 12 games against WBA. They have 13 wins of last 14 home games and 11 of those 13 were with 2 or more goals margin. Only defeat was suffered from Chelsea and both wins by 1 came against Liverpool. Opponents like WBA are in the group of routine games. Despite recent talks, Hargreaves won’t make his comeback today and only doubtful is Giggs.

The Baggies have been noticing their best start in Premier (considering their previous appearances, that is not too much). However, 6^th place on the table (!), their home performances (no defeat in  four games) and excellent away win at Emirates call on caution. Di Matteo’s team carries a nice passing football and don’t hesitate to use any sign of disrespect. Like they did against Arsenal. On the other hand, that attitude can bring them a trouble, like it was at Stamford (0-6). As they didn’t care about that defeat (won vs. Sunderland 1-0 in the next game), I think they won’t about the game like Man Utd away is. Regardless of the today’s result, they will stay focused on home games and direct rivals from the bottom. WBA could be without striker Odemwingie and midfielder Jerome Thomas who are in doubt.

Odds here are a little bit higher than usual. International brake couldn’t make a serious problem as it’s removed for Tuesday. Champions League game is at next Wednesday, but I don’t see Bursa as a kind of opponent for who Sir Alex will dramatically change the squad in Premier. Five points less than Chelsea should be valid reason for maximum seriousness at Old Trafford and I expect another convincing win. 3-0 correct score.

Bet: Man Utd -1.75
Odd: 2.03 Expekt
Stake: 8/10

Gamble: Correct score 3-0
Odd: 7.50 888sports
Stake: 1/10  

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Weekend results

Nothing much to say.Saturday without any win.Can't remember when I managed that last time.

Rotherham - Stevenage  1-1 1/2 LOST
Hartlepool - Peterborough  2-0 LOST

Statistic:

October
Profit: -8.0 units Yield: -20.00%

Season
Profit: +12.18 units Yield: +4.49%

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Hartlepool United - Peterborough United

Hartlepool are a League One side that avoided moving down for just one point in both of two previous seasons. A same dark prediction applies for the recent one as well. Only home win they noticed against drowning Walsall, but more important characteristic is they lost encounters against top sides without too much fight (Sheff Wed 0-5 and Carlisle 0-4, both at home), leaking a total of 15 goals in 5 home games! Decent resist was only against Swindon in the 2^nd round (2-2). In previous round, United froze Plymouth on the road 1-0 and in midweek defeated at home devastated Bradford. Caretaker Wadsworth will probably set the same squad that beat Pilgrims which means strikers Brown and Greulich remain sidelined. Midfielder Antony Sweeney could appear, however.

Peterborough remind me very much on WBA. They’re too strong for middleweight, but in light heavy get punches from all sides and finished seriously hurt. They’re again in League One and once again as favorites for promotion. Decent start and 2nd place for them. As today’s hosts, The Posh also have noticed some results that can roil the picture about their capabilities. They lost in both Cups, but in previous league game beat Carlisle on the road 1-0. I don’t expect them to finish lower than play-off spot and they’re not typical home side. Usually collect same number of points at home and away. Only  absence is skipper Grant McCann who is on away duty.

Hosts are strugglers with shaky defense and toothless attack. Visitors are one of the main title contenders and surely favorite here. Odds are too good to be overlooked. I expect away win.

Bet: Peterborough -0.25
Odd: 2.02 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Rotherham United – Stevenage

In previous season, Rotherham lost at Wembley in the play-off final (Dagenham 2-3) and stayed in League Two. Since then, there were not too much changes in the team and the Millers remain as one of four contenders for the title. They made a decent start noticing just one defeat in opening 10 rounds, currently hold 3rd position and at home have 3 wins and 2 draws. Both draws were a little bit unlucky and while against devastated Bradford (0-0) didn’t manage to capitalize obvious superiority, against Burton lost 3-0 lead at the half time (3-3). Boss Moore rested his key players at Cup game during the midweek (win over Burton away), while skipper Cresswell backs to the team after missed 2 games following the death of his grandfather.

  

Stevenage are having a good start of their debut campaign in the fourth tier. They collected 13 points and are currently far from relegation zone. However, they still haven’t played against top league sides and all wins they noticed in games that should be six-pointers in the relegation battle (Stockport 3-1, Lincoln 1-0 and Hereford (4-1). Despite they don’t feel too much stress right now, Stevenage will face a tough battle for avoiding relegation. Their hope today will be on loan striker Chris Holroyd who scored 4 goals in first 3 games for the club (3 against Hereford). Skipper defender Roberts has been recovered from injury and could make a return, while midfielder Byrom and striker Boylan remain sidelined.

Don Valley is always a tough place to go for any league team, not just ex Conference side. Difference in quality and ambitions, home pitch and excellent (and rested) Adam le Fondre (9 goals in past 10 games) should simply be too much for Stevenage.

Bet: Rotheram -0.25
Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10

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Serbia – Estonia, why it doesn't worth at 1.15

Well, I wouldn’t write too much about reasons for us. Big gap in quality and home soil. That should be more than enough for Estonians.

Against…  First, Serbia have new national team coach, Vladimir Petrovic, last year Crvena Zvezda’s. Under him, we (Zvezda) were playing the ugliest football that I (we) have ever seen. He invited formation with 3 defensive midfielders all together in the team! Defensive football with main target not to concede. More shocking,  that was from one of two best clubs in the country who used to play against very defensive sides.  I’m really afraid he’ll try the same in national team. He announced we’ll play with just one striker, Zigic, who is out of Birmingham team and out of shape. Wingers, Krasic (in a great shape at Juve) and Jovanovic (same as Zigic), and again 3 central midfielders. Stankovic is sure, for other 2 spots we have 3 players, Kacar, Kuzmanovic and Ninkovic. None of them is natural attacking midfielder (Kacar can play it though). For me, it looks like too much caution for Estonia that could lead to problems (we can’t score and become nervous, problems). Ex coach, Radomir Antic, announced yesterday he’ll suit Serbian football association for 2 mill euros for cancelling his contract. Very nice timing from him.

Goalkeeper Stojkovic, before few seasons Crvena Zvezda’s captain, made a shocking move and signed for big rivals – Partizan. Death threats to him are common things these days in Serbia. His appearance will certainly split the crowds which usually has bad impact on all players. Moving the game on Partizan’s stadium helps, however.

I would never bet against my own team and hope I’m wrong, but if I’m a foreigner I’d see X2 @ 5.00 (Bwin) as a nice little gamble. Under at 2.63 (888sport) also looks tempting and maybe I’ll take it hoping for 1-0, 2-0 win.

Some English pick(s) will come tonight or tomorrow.

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Weekend's results and statistic update

Stoke were good, Forest didn't score 2nd, but little of luck came at Shrewsbury where Torquay made an excellent and absolutely unexpected performance. However, it's a profit and good start of October.

Doncaster - Nottingham Forest  1-1  DRAW
Shrewsbury - Torquay  1-1  1/2 LOSS
Stoke - Blackburn  1-0  WON




Statistic:

October
Profit: +3.5 units Yield: +14.00%

Season
Profit: +23.68 units Yield: +9.23%

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Stoke City – Blackburn Rovers

Stoke are a decent home side and despite not so good results lately (only 2 wins at home of last 10 games), they’ve been playing good and I expect better results. Against Spurs (1-2) were unlucky, as well as against West Ham (1-1). They’re creating plenty of chances (Stoke have hit the woodwork 8 times, more than any other team), but lacking in goals. Club made some serious investments in new players (Jones, Pennant and signing Gudjohnsen should be right move considering his aerial abilities) and I’m sure they will be improving.  They won at Newcastle 2-1 in last round and that should be additional moral boost.  Andy Wilkinson and mentioned Pennant are doubts, while Fuller’s injury is not as bad as it looked and he’ll be in the squad.

Rovers have noticed a good start of the campaign, but oppositely from the hosts they were lucky in few occasions that allowed them to sit in the middle of the table. God knows how they resisted against City (1-1 away) and they deserved a defeat at Blackpool but scored in additional time for a win. However, fact is Blackburn under Big Sam are very poor traveler. In previous season they won just 3 times on the road and in one before that 4 times. Majority of their points are collected at home, while away play without a pressure, keep 0-0 and try to use their most dangerous weapon – set pieces. Striker Roberts and midfielder Andrews should be fit for the game, but key man Dunn and Grella are still sidelined.

                                                                                     

Both sides carry old fashioned English football with lots of fight in the air and this won’t be pretty game to watch. However, I can see bigger desire for a win at Stoke and a decent amount of unused potential. Expect a tight game and 1-0 home win.

Bet: Stoke -0.25
Odd: 2.00 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Shrewsbury Town - Torquay United

Shrewsbury started to look like a serious promotion contender. Despite just one point noticed in last two games (Wycombe 2-2 and Port Vale 0-1, both away), their performances are over the results. And a defeat against flying Port Vale is not something that can seriously damage confidence at Greenhous Meadow. At home, they look pretty impressive with 3 wins and a draw of 4 games, adding on that a win against Charlton in Carling Cup. Manager Graham Turner will miss striker Kris Bright, while midfielder Sean McAllister will face a late fitness test. Another striker Tom Bradshaw and ex-Leeds youngster Cansdell-Sherriff should be fit for the game.

Torquay made an impressive start of the season with all wins in opening four rounds. They’re the only team that defeated Port Vale so far and their good game and a Cup draw against Reading should be mentioned. However, after those wins Torquay started to lose the fuel as they noticed five games without a win (two draws, three defeats), scored just twice in those five and made two consecutive home defeats in previous two rounds. Manager Paul Buckle asked his boss for more money to “build on positive start”, but got a slap over the mouth with the official club’s statement that club has no more money. Bad timing at least.  Defender Mark Ellis should be fit, while midfielder Damon Lathrope will be sidelined after the knock in a midweek game.

Two opposite trends here. Shrewsbury are in a very good shape and have League One ambitions. Their good performances should convert into winnings. On the other hand, Torquay are in a serious downtrend and it looks their season is already over. I expect a tight affair, but home win at the end. 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Shrewsbury -0.25
Odd: 1.94 Victor Chandler
Stake: 9/10

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Doncaster - Nottingham Forest

Donny like to think about themselves like the dark horses for the play-off, but in reality they’re just an average Championship side. Since they were promoted from third tier, they were 14^th and 12^th with almost same number of points at home and away. Nothing that can suggest their ambitions changed for this season. Decent start of the season, no home defeat so far (2 wins and 2 draws), but in my opinion it’s fair to say none of those 4 teams are cream of the league. Manager Sean O'Driscoll has some problems in defense line. Byron Webster could make his return after long-term absence, but Shelton Martis is out as well as Chambers and Thomas who remain sidelined.

Billy Davies’ slow start pattern continues in this season as well. As a manager of Derby, he noticed first win after 6-7 round, then started topping the table and reached Premier League. Last season in Forest was the same, except he didn’t get promotion. Same story this year, starting defeat at Burnley, then numberless draws and first win in 7^th round. There’s nothing that can make me thinking something is out of Davies’ plan. Almost same team from previous season, same ambitions and I can see them in play-off (at least) at the end. Before this game Davies accepted the role of underdogs(!) and was talking about bad sides of Forest’s recent displays, announced some changes in the team. No, I don’t believe in that. Only important missing is striker Rob Earnshaw, except him it’s a fully fit squad.

Only things that decrease my optimism about this encounter are tradition (that says only Forest’s victory at Doncaster was 1956) and the fact visitors would probably be satisfied with only a point here. But, I can’t see them losing this one and see this odd as a generous offer.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Thursday's results and statistic update

City were... Pathetic? Guess, I accept that harder than I should. September is red.
Not too much time for moaning, plenty of English football tomorrow.

Manchester City - Juventus  1-1  LOSS

Statistic:

September
Profit: -5.18 units Yield: -4.43%

Season
Profit: +20.18 units Yield: +8.72%

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