Manchester City – Juventus

Citizens defeated Chelsea at Saturday, they’re still contenders for the Premier title and seem to have a good atmosphere, despite some rumors. However, Mancini’s team already exited from Carling Cup and one more failure would be extremely difficult to explain to the boss. I expect a strong line-up tonight (could it be weak?) and serious approach. Juve are a big challenge and players will be eager to prove themselves (once more) on a big scene. Recent defensive worries don’t look too serious anymore, as Micah Richards has recovered from injury and will take his place at right-back. Shaun Wright and Mario Balotelli will be sidelined, but their positions are far from being critical.

Juve made a bleak start in Serie a with just 7 points from 5 opening games. Fortunately, they’re still just 3 points far from the top. Their defense line looks more than shaky, as they conceded 3 against Doria 3-3, Lech 3-3, Palermo 1-3 and 2 vs. Cagliari 4-2. All of those were at home and at last one, new embarrassment was avoid thankfully to Krasic who scored a hat-trick. On the paper their squad looks very strong, but their performances don’t give too much faith they can challenge for a title. Serie a will certainly be a priority over Europe and important thing is Juve have Inter on the corner (away, at Sunday). Luigi Delneri will be without injured Amauri and Quagliarella who isn’t registered for EL. Also, there’s possibility to some players be rested.

Europa League is a chance for City to get some silverware this season. They won’t get a title in Premier and already failed in Carling. Mancini must impress the bosses every day, while players are best motivated against strongest sides which Juve definitely is. Visitors haven’t impressing, lately. Weak start could turn into disaster in case of failure at Milano, European second stage could be reached even with a defeat tonight. Home win.

Bet: Man City -1ah
Odd: 2.11  Canbet
Stake: 7/10


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Tuesday's results and statistic update

Good night after all. I was so annoyed when Colchester turned the game from 0-1 to 2-1 and then conceded for a draw. Then I paid attention on the other results... Complete chaos! I wasn't even thinking about Cardiff and QPR, but plenty of shocking results. Leeds, Nott Forest, Bristol Rovers, Hudders, Rotheram, Peterborough... Last 3 weeks in England are real mine field. But... Most important thing. My September is green, finally!!! Yes!

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina  3-0  WON

Colchester - Dag & Red  2-2  LOST

Norwich - Leicester  4-3  WON

Statistic:

September
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +1.65%

Season
Profit: +27.18 units Yield: +12.11%

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Norwich – Leicester

Despite the defeat in previous round (Hull at home, 0-2), Norwich have been noticing an encouraging start of the season. Sixth spot and play-off zone are something that guarantee they’ll be fully motivated (as long as Premiership dream lasts). Against Hull they were much better rival, but in last 10 minutes conceded twice and noticed very unlucky defeat. My assumption is they’ll be very eager to bounce back tonight. Midfielder Surman and defender Nelson are still out, while defenders Whitbread and Smith have returned to the full training.

Leicester’s current shape is at least embarrassing. Instead play-off spot, they’re keeping the bottom of the table with just 5 points of 8 games. On the road just a single point and goal difference 4-13, after they suffered real humiliation at Portsmouth (1-6). Sousa’s manager position isn’t stabile at all. Seems he couldn’t imply the system with tight defense that was successfully bringing results in Swansea. Oppositely, Leicester’s back line looks vulnerable, conceding large amounts lately. Chairman Mandaric has said he gives his full support to Sousa.  Usually, such statements mean opposite. Players possess enough quality for the top half of the table and certainly don’t enjoy when Portsmouth make a laugh of them. I’m sure Sousa’s departure is very close, maybe even tonight. Defender Miguel Vitor is suspended after red card.

 

Leicester won’t be relegated, that’s sure, but better results will come when they make a cut. Currently they look like a sinking boat. Hosts believe their Saturday’s defeat was a robbery, now are preparing a strong response.  

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Bet: Norwich -0.25 
Odd: 2.08  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Colchester - Dag & Red

Colchester are very good League One side and they’re only League One side that still haven’t notice a defeat in the opening 8 rounds. They have five draws, but should be mentioned their tough schedule and playing against top league clubs (draws against Sheff Wed, Carlisle, Plymouth and S’ton and win over Rochdale). In previous round Colchester defeated Tranmere, scoring three times in the first half of hour, making it very comfortable. Two defenders, Pat Baldwin and Brian Wilson, will face a late fitness test.

After eight rounds, Daggers have collected only 6 points and it seems their adventure in the higher level will hardly last longer than a season. Just one point on the road in previous four games with goal difference 2-8.  If there’s any reason for the optimism, it’s last round draw at Charlton. However, I don’t really think they can play two away games on that level twice in four days. They’ll miss two defenders for tonight’s game, Will Antwi and Abu Ogogo.

 

After tough games, Colchester should feel relaxation to see Daggers on the other half of the pitch. Another 3 points should launch them to the top. Smell of Championship could be the strongest motivation. Home win, 2-0 correct score.

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Bet: Colchester -0.75
Odd: 1.97 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina

Russians are contender for the second place in the group. Assuming no one will take too much from Chelsea, with away win at Marseille they already finished a big part of the job. Now, they need to confirm that points, every mistake would erase it. Spartak’s boss has been trying to remark the absence of few midfielders, but seems only Drincic’s is worth of notice.

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Despite recent progress of Slovakian football, I don’t rate Zilina too high. Can’t imagine them in the next round and most they could is to make some effort and win French for the third spot. They also have a big “imperfection” as they play offensive football regardless the opponent’s name.   So they did against Chelsea and conceded 4, instead 1 or 2. Now boss Hapal announced the same plan which, in my opinion, can only see them hurt. Spartak have some problems against highly defensive sides, but actually like when someone comes “for a win”.

 

Home side is strong favorite here and everything except a convincing win would be a first class surprise (for me, at least). However, I’m not ready to take any bigger handicap.

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Bet: Spartak -1
Odd: 1.88  bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Saturday's results and statistic update

Trend of weird results in England continues. I'm glad I didn't touch Charlton or Arsenal at very good odds. It's a pity Brum didn't convert some of the chances, but considering all shocks yesterday I accept minimal loss as a good day.

Leeds - Sheffield United  1-0  WON

Birmingham - Wigan  0-0  LOSS

Statistic:

September
Profit: -4.98 units Yield: -5.72%

Season
Profit: +20.38 units Yield: +10.11%

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Birmingham – Wigan

Birmingham made a decent start of the season with home win against Blackburn and staying undefeated vs. Liverpool as well as in two away games (Sunderland and Bolton). Then came a tragedy for them expressed in derby defeat against WBA 1-3. Team reacted positively and defeated MK Dons in a Cup game. Brum are very good at their St Andrew’s and if they don’t lose today it will be one year without a home defeat! They brought on loan Alexander Hleb from Barca and he should make a great impact on the right flank. Birmingham are in second, usually very dangerous, season in the top crew and avoiding relegation is main objective. To reach that, they must win the games like Wigan at home. James McFadden is injured.

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After just five rounds passed, Wigan already announced their candidacy for moving down to Championship. One very lucky victory (over Spurs on the road, 1-0), one draw (Sunderland at home, 1-1) and three defeats with shocking goal difference 2-13! Wigan have only won one of their last eight Premier games and before Spurs, they had noticed six consecutive defeats on the road. In the previous round, Man City took all 3 points from DW Stadium with Wigan had not a single attempt on a target. They look very bad and I think manager Roberto Martínez is close to face the exit door. Only light in the dark is N’Zogbia’s recent shape, but it cannot be enough to push the whole team. Captain defender, Gary Caldwell, is still sidelined as well as midfielder Cleverley. 

 

It’s a big difference in quality, here. Birmingham will play for the fans as it is first game after WBA and this should be their “best shot” (or very near to that). I’m aware the most of their wins are with a goal margin, but here expect something more.

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Bet: Birmingham -0.75
Odd: 2.12  188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Leeds – Sheffield United

Leeds collected 10 points in the opening 7 rounds which isn’t bad, but in my opinion their displays are over the recent results. They lost in local derby (vs. Barnsley 2-5) in the game that came just 3 days after very hard home encounter against Swansea (2-1, after 0-1 at half time). In the previous round, they overplayed Doncaster, also on the road, but drew at the end. They’ve been showing a plenty of fighting spirit. Two times came from behind, but they’re also the only side in Championship that committed 100 fouls. They should continue the trend from League One when Elland was a fortress and in any game at home, Leeds will be favorite. Simon Grayson has no injury concerns and it will be first time when he can pick from a full squad. Loanee left-back, George McCartney, will probably has his debut.

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Blades sacked his manager, Kevin Blackwell, after home defeat vs. QPR 0-3. Harsh decision, in my opinion, as Rangers seem to be the strongest league club. And United this year won’t be able to repeat the ambitions from previous seasons (play-off). Blackwell’s successor, Gary Speed (ex Leeds player), has been trying to implement his own style of play. Which means battle in whole game, very few goals conceded (three clean sheets in five games), but also very few goals scored (3 goals in those 5). They have lots of problems in creating the chances and they really suffer with the absence of Darius Henderson in the attacking line. Skipper and central-defender, Chris Morgan, is still sidelined. I think their only advantage will be history that says Blades haven’t lost vs. Leeds in the last seven encounters.

 

Leeds will start aggressively and will be keeping that pace during all 90 minutes. I expect their good performances finally change into good results. Blades carry the same style of play and that’s the way how Leeds like opposition to play. Sheffield also obviously lack in quality this season. Blackwell’s departure was a big mistake, Speed won’t stay too long. Home win with some caution.

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Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 1.82  Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10

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Weekend's results and statistic update

Another shocking saturday. Blackburn lost the lead as Dempsey scored forth time in a row against them, Notts County came from 2-0 to 2-2 and good, old Lee Hughes brought a win. Hudders turned 0-2 into 4-2... Good day and decent profit. September starts to look better.

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Blackburn - Fulham  1-1  1/2 LOSS

Notts County - Leyton Orient  3-2  WON

Huddersfield - Yeovil  4-2  WON

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Statistic:

September
Profit: -4.36 units Yield: -6.23%

Season
Profit: +21.00 units Yield: +11.38%

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Huddersfield Town - Yeovil Town

Huddersfield have noticed not so good start and only because other top clubs lost some points, they’re 5th with only one point far from the top. Beside home win vs. Charlton, they drew against Bournemouth and missed to break defense of struggling Tranmere (0-0). Seems they spent all the credits given by fans and management which probably will bring a higher amount of seriousness. Two important players, midfielder Anthony Pilkington and defender Lee Peltier, are returning after absence because family reasons.

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Yeovil collected decent 7 points so far, but both wins came at home against two sides that surely will struggle, Leyton and Tranmere. Good result was also surviving at Oldham (0-0), but disturbing was their disability to resist against only average sides in League One (Bristol Rovers 1-2, Hartlepool 0-2 at home) and their crash vs. Notts County (0-4). They have limited potential and I predict them a bottom side of the table. Boss Skiverton has a problem with goalkeeper as his first choice, John Sullivan, picked up an injury. He’ll give a debut to loanee, Stephen Henderson, coach Ben Roberts or youngster Steve Boore. Any of these 3 will have to cope with the pressure and rough life at Galpharm.

 

In my opinion, Hudders have been playing much under their full potential and need one trashing to get on the track. Poor travelers, Yeovil, look like an ideal opposition. 3-0, 4-0 correct score.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah
Odd: 2.10  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Notts County - Leyton Orient

Despite 3 defeats in first 6 rounds, County have been noticing a good start in their debut in 3rd tier. All of those 3 came from league giants, Huddersfield 0-3, Sheff Wed 1-2 and always strong Charlton 0-1. They won both home games against teams that should be main rivals for avoiding relegation (Dag&Red 1-0 and Yeovil 4-0). And their plan is easy, to win the games against direct opponents and collect points at home as much as it’s possible. They won’t care too much about Hudders, Wed, S’ton or Charlton. New loan signing from Blackburn, midfielder Alan Judge, will have his debut, while striker Luke Rodgers is still sidelined.

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Orient started the season in a manner that fully justifies public opinion about them as relegation contenders. Four defeats, draw and one win is probably a trend that will follow them through the season. Beside expected failure against Hudders, shocking were their displays and defeats against neighbors Charlton (1-3, with one player more), Yeovil and in last away game Dag&Red. Boss Slade has a problem in defense line as his key defender, Charlie Daniels, is injured and will face a late fitness test. Club brought a replacement for him on loan from Millwall, experienced Andrew Frampton, but he also got an injury in last round and will be sidelined.

 

County will be fully motivated here, as they have to win games like Leyton at home if wish to stay in the league. They’re still in “debut season” syndrome and I expect their climbing on the table. Home win.

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Bet: Notts County -0.5
Odd: 1.83  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Blackburn - Fulham

Rovers survived a hell in Manchester in last round (City, 1-1) and now have a chance for 3 points. In first four rounds they collected only 4 points, but seems their performance are better that results. Both defeats came after good displays (1-2 away to Birmingham after 1-0 lead and Arsenal 1-2, at home). Their style remains the same, long-balls and bullying attitude which made a great home record. Only 5 defeats in last 32 home games under Sam Allardyce! Big boost should be a return of skipper Ryan Nelsen in the center of defense, while right-back Michel Salgado is in doubt after thigh injury against Man City. Blackburn won 4 and drew 1 of last 5 against Fulham at Ewood Park.

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Mark Hughes at his new job still hasn’t felt a taste of defeat with one win and 3 draws. However, Fulham are poor travelers through the seasons. In previous one, they made terrible record of just one win (and 7 draws) of 19 games! In comparison with that season, they lost excellent Chris Smalling (Man Utd), another key defender Konchesky (L’pool) and of course boss Hodgson, but biggest loss is Zamora who broke the leg vs. Wolves (predicted absence is 5 months). I don’t expect too much from them this season and see Fulham lower than last season’s 12th position. Hughes has lots of problems with injured players. Defenders, Halliche and Stoor, have injuries and are in doubt, while absence of Andrew Johnson limits the options in attack. Fulham haven’t won a league game on the road since August 2009 (20 games) and didn’t score in last 11!

 

My only concern here is Blackburn’s attacking potential and am taking -0.25 instead clear win. Despite recent goals, I’m not so impressed with young duo, Kalinic and Diouf. And most of the team goals come after set-pieces. However, I expect a home win with a clean sheet. 1-0, or 2-0.

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Bet: Blackburn -0.25
Odd: 1.77  bet365
Stake: 9/10

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Saturday's results and statistic update

Couldn't decide what was the bigger shock, City or Wednesday. Can't really remember when all my picks were down at the half time. At least, good-old Leeds turned the game. However, total balance is positive, but September started bad. Hope for the better days.

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Man City - Blackburn  1-1  LOSS

Leeds - Swansea  2-1  WON

Sheff Wed - Carlisle  0-1  LOSS

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Statistic:

September

Profit: -15.3 units Yield: -69.55%

Season

Profit: +10.06 units Yield: +7.37%

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Sheff Wed – Carlisle

Wednesday made a decent start of the campaign which should return them into Championship. It’s no need to talk about their potential. Players like Tudgay, Morrison, Potter, Purse or Mellor are definitely names for the higher level. In my opinion, they have even better team than last season when they were in the second tier. Boss Irvine has on injury concerns as the only missing is winger Jermaine Johnson. Despite the defeat in last round (away to Brentford, 0-1), Irvine will probably set unchanged side.

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Carlisle have noticed a good start without a defeat in 5 opening games. Defeated Brentford and MK Dons, resisted away to Plymouth and Colchester and drew at home vs. Swindon. I have an impression they’ve been playing little over their potential and expect their drop in the results. However, for the visit to Hillsborough manager Abbott can not count on midfielder duo Bridge-Wilkinson and Hurst, while Michalik already made his debut in defense line and is expected to appear again. Defender Danny Livesey remains sidelined.

 

Wednesday are main contender for a direct promotion, look like a mean machine recently (didn’t at Brentford though, but really should have got something from that game) and I can’t see them losing too much points this season, especially at home. With all respect, Carlisle’s role here will be to make, with their 2nd place, Owls serious.

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Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75

Odd: 2.00 bet365

Stake: 7/10
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That's it, good luck to all.
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Leeds - Swansea

Leeds suffered a shock at the opening day (1-2 Derby), but bounced back very fast. Seven points in next three games are more than decent achievement. A point away at Nottingham, home win vs. “old friends” Millwall and away win at Watford gave them strong wind in the back in their high ambitions. Main problem is defense line where Schmeichel is covering all the holes. However, great attacking potential and Grayson’s high-tempo style of play make from them a serious play-off contender. Leeds had 59 goal attempts - 31 of them on target - and hit the woodwork 7 times! They still miss Snodgrass and Paynter, but made some good signings (Faye, Nunez, Clayton and my favorite Ross McCormack).

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Swansea seem still suffering from Sousa’s departure. And while at home look safe (won all three competitive games), on the road can’t keep a clean sheet (both league defeats, Hull and Norwich 0-2). I don’t think they’ll have a chance to join the race for a play-off spot and mid table position is the place where they’ll probably finish the season. However, boss Rodgers has big worries about missing players. Midfielder Darren Pratley is suspended, another midfielder Tom Butler is injured as well as strikers Beattie and Pintado. All four are important players. Swans were beaten on their last 6 visits to Leeds and their only away victory at Elland Road was a 2-1 win in 1949.

 

Leeds are maybe the best organized club in the second tier, have good squad quality and fans’ support. Elland Road should be a fortress this season and I really like these odds.

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Bet: Leeds -0.25

Odd: 2.05 Canbet

Stake: 8/10
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Probably one more.
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Manchester City - Blackburn

After 125 mill pounds spent during the summer, City started the season of great expectations with a win, draw and a loss. And while opening draw at Spurs wasn’t a big failure, demolishing L’pool was the great confidence boost, then real shock came at Sunderland (0-1 defeat). Considering circumstances and 94^th minute penalty, dressing room atmosphere is still good. They look very good defensively, that was the only goal conceded in 5 competitive games this season, while their attacking potential looks terrific. Mancini’s only concern is Tevez who will face a late fitness test (considering odds movement, he’ll be on the bench). Balotelli will be out for a while, Boateng will wait for a debut, while Micah Richards is fit again.

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Blackburn is a hard working side consisted from just average players, but with the leadership of (in my opinion) one of the best managers. They have enough quality to avoid struggling, but I can see a mid table position as their greatest possible achievement. As always majority of their points will come from home games, while on the road will be playing for a goalless draws. Under Big Sam, in first season they won just 4 away games of 19 and scored 18 goals, in second (last one) won miserable 3 and scored 13! In previous season, against all top sides (including Everton, Villa, Fulham and Stoke) except L’pool they lost with 2 goals margin at least. Defender Olsson is only doubt, while ex City striker Mwaruwari could have his debut.

 

I said once, I’ll be backing City as long as they feel as contenders for a title. They have a great potential and things will be fine as long as there’s good atmosphere. At Sunderland, they got a smack right in the mouth. They treat it as a bad luck and still believe they can win the title. So, let them believe. 

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Bet: Man City -1.25

Odd: 2.16 188bet

Stake: 8/10

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Saturday and statistic update

Notts County - Yeovil  4-0  WON
Huddersfield - Bournemouth  2-2  LOSS
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Statistic:
September
Profit: -8.7 units Yield: -39.55%
Season
Profit: +16.66 units Yield: +12.21%

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Huddersfield Town - AFC Bournemouth

In my opinion, Huddersfield are a strong contender for the place number 2 (just behind Sheff.Wed.) and direct promotion. They made an average start with 7 points from 4 games. They carry attacking style of play which, beside convincing wins against Notts County (3-0, away) and Charlton (at home 3-0), brought them two convincing defeats against Everton in Cup (1-5, away) and Posh (2-4 away, all 4 conceded in the 2^nd half after 2-0 lead). The biggest problems are visible when they face a team that “park the bus”, like Tranmere (0-0, at home). Some important players are returning to the squad. Young goalie, Alex Smithies, are back from England U-21, defender Lee Peltier has served his suspension, while winger Anthony Pilkington returns from an injury.

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Bournemouth have made a flying start of the campaign with same number of points (seven) as today’s opponent. However, beside impressive home win vs. Posh 5-1 other win came from the game against top relegation contender Tranmere (3-0, away), while two last home games ended with the draws. First County scored twice for 3-3, then Torquay resisted in the Cup game (0-0, home). However, injury crisis has struck the club. Striker Symes and midfielder McQuoid are in serious doubt, while another two strikers Fletcher and Lovell are ruled out. New striker, Lyle Taylor, should start.

 

Bournemouth are a kind of the opponent that Hudders like to play against. They carry attacking style and won’t be defending with 10 players, while their recent results call on serious approach. Beside a win, home side should work on self-confidence. Correct score 3-0, 3-1.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah
Odd: 2.05 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Notts County – Yeovil

County started the season in the manner that was really expected. They couldn’t cope with the strongest sides Huddersfield and Oldham (both 0-3), but defeated Dag&Red and fought a draw away at Bournemouth. Signs of bigger potential could be seen at Watford, in League Cup encounter where County won 2-1. Biggest problem was the absence of their mascot, striker Lee Hughes. He has been recovered from a groin injury and will take some part in this game (will start from the bench, I expect). Another two important players, midfielder Neal Bishop and striker Ben Burgess should also be fit. County are celebrating 100 year centenary today.

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Yeovil started with a home win vs. Leyton (1-0), but in next five competitive games have noticed a one draw and four defeats. They looked harmless in front, with just two goals scored in those five. Additional problem for boss Skiverton is striker Sam Williams is suspended after a red card in Cup game (home defeat vs. Exeter). Two loan signings, defender Kiernan and midfielder MacDonald, could start the game. Yeovil’s main hope is a home games, while usually don’t shine on the road. Last season won 4 away games of 23, season before 6 and season before that 5.

 

Yeovil already lost against Bristol Rovers, Hartlepool and Exeter and I don’t give them too much chance today. If County want to achieve the target and keep the status in the third tier, they have to win games like Yeovil at home.

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Bet: Notts County to win

Odd: 1.90 Expekt

Stake: 7/10

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Friday's result

Ireland scored after 7 games. A loss for the start of September.

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Slovenia - Northern Ireland  0-1  LOSS

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Statistic:

August

Profit: -7 units  Yield: -100%

Season

Profit: +18.36 units  Yield: +15.11%

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Slovenia - Northern Ireland

Slovenia is a decent side. They proved themselves in previous qualifications and in South Africa. Some talented players (Novakovic, Dedic, Koren…), but personally I’m well surprised with their tactical discipline during the game. Their raiting has raised from 79^th Fifa place to 19^th. In last five home games, they won 4 (N.Zealand, Qatar, Russia and San Marino) and drew one (Czech Republic). Only absentee is defender Marko Suler.

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Ireland made few very good campaigns, but always stayed short eventually. They were playing friendlies lately, lost all 5 and didn’t score in last 7! However, they made 2 decent results and two draws against Czech 0-0 and Poland 1-1. In group with Italy, Serbia, Estonia, Slovenia and Faroe Islands, I rate them as 4^th and really can’t see N.Ireland progressing. No significant missings.

 

Slovenia plays really well in Maribor and considering the group rivals (Italy and Serbia) and the fact next game is in Belgrade, this one they have to win. 2-0 correct score.

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Bet: Slovenia -1ah  
Odd: 2.07  Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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August summary

August is always a tough month, but not this time. Can't remember when I was better at the start of the season. Hope you readers enjoyed.

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Statistic:

Profit: +25.36 units

Yield: +22.15%

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