Before the season start, Reading was the main favorite for wining Championship. Considering the names, it is the same team that relegated from Premier, even strengthened. They reached a place for direct promotion (in January, if my memory is correct), but from then their shape has been in decreasing path. In the last league round, they missed a chance for place number two, loosing against Birmingham at home, 1-2. Their performance characterize excellent defense line, tough and very well organized midfield, but the main problem is realization. Kevin Doyle plays much under the expectations and maybe that is the biggest reason for current situation. Have a lots of problems against defense oriented teams at Madejsky. Statistic for panic-attack says Royals haven’t won at home ground since 27.01.2009 (Wolverhampton, 1-0), eight games! Three draws and five defeats, six times didn’t score. In the first game, Royals were dominating in the first 45 minutes, missing four excellent opportunities. But, bad luck came in the second period. First, mentioned Kevin Doyle got injury renewal (and 99% finished the season), then penalty kick was gifted to Burnley and at the end defender Andre Bikey got a red card and four-match ban! I think the big pressure will be on the home side (completely same as Birmingham game).
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Burnley played very good season, announcing high ambitions from the beginning. With the brave attitude and attacking style of play they got a lots of sympathy and in combination with good results were already seen in play-off, much before the season ended. But, it seems at the first sight, they’re paying the price for playing in three competitions, 59 games played! But, the good side is they specialized for cup games. Their shoot list contains names as Chelsea, Arsenal and Fulham (almost eliminated Tottenham too, in Carling Cup semi-final). In the first game, boss Owen Coyle gave up from attacking style, trying to keep the net first, leaving the space to the visitors. Pure luck and brilliant goalie Brian Jensen kept that tactic unpunished. Five minutes before the end, Graham Alexander scored from penalty kick and gave a real hope before the re-match. I’ve been trying a while to discover do they have really serious injury problems, as they’re saying, or just want to present themselves as a bigger outsiders than they really are. The fact is, three very important players are under the question mark. Wade Elliott missed out on Saturday with a leg injury and his replacement, Joey Gudjonsson, was taken off after a heavy challenge, but both face tests. For me, the most important is appearance of excellent winger Chris Eagles. His fast runs can be decisive for this game. He will pass a late test on his jarred hip problem. Anyway, I don’t believe in Coyle’s moaning, too much. Clarets have experience how to play big games against much better teams, usually turning the surplus of pressure into surplus of adrenaline.
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Considering names, home side deserved a direct promotion. Considering opinions from a bunch of eminent experts, they’re the best team in play-off (hm…ok). Maybe it is the sixth sense before the facts, but I give an advantage to visitors. I think they’re mentally much stronger, the full crowd and big expectations can be just a rock tied up for the legs, for home side. I’ll go for Burnley, with a small stake. Pinnacle offers very high 4.68. Away win.
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